El Presidente Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 I know many of you play the markets. My strategy has always been solid....avoid what Ken buys. It works There has been some volatility in the share markets of late. What is your theory/thoughts on where it is all going over the next 6 months?
orangedog Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 ...in 6 months we may be able to see if there is a real consumer rebound and whether or not companies start spending money. Seems to me we are in an asset inflation period where there isn't underlying economic activity to support it. It is possible to avoid the collapse that would suggest if economic activity picks up before too many people think a collapse is coming.
persianpirate Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 As far as the NYSE goes, I'm hands off until close to the end of the year. First half of the year was great, but I'm not confident enough to continue to buy, hold, or short going forward.
CaptainQuintero Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 Same as the last six months I'm betting. No political will for big changes in Syria, Iran still holding the cards with Nuclear talks, N-Korea settling down. No international leadership on any of them. Putin will be skipping his way back to Moscow after giving the rest of the G8 a lesson in power plays; even less political will in all of the above now bar some small sabre rattling by the US/Nato/et al to show that they are still relevant (lol) Possible mess in Brazil and Turkey (Invest in riot shields ) EU seems to have settled down now that everyone with clout is happy for a long lingering death of the single currency/job prospects for under 25s The real story behind the Prism leak won't ever come out (Not the fact that software is 40 years old and is being used as a patsy for the real issues) but possibly the markets might wobble if some of the smaller stories break, doubt it though, still not a good time for certain tech/software markets Look into fracking firms imo, everything else seems to still have jelly legs
Fuzz AI Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 Tell that Bernanke idiot to shut up! Every time the man comes out and speaks, the bloody Aussie dollar falls!
orangedog Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 There hasn't been real alpha in years. ...so none going forward?
Habanos2000 Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 The US market is long over due for a health restoring correction. Just hang on tight and I think we'll see brighter times by the end of the year*. *barring any unforeseen problems!
Orion21 Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 The markets dropped 2-3% today because the FED hinting at possibly curtailing their buying spree sometime next year... This is how fragile this market currently happens to be. It's been propped up with money from the FED since the crash and now the hint of that money going away causes the market to dive. Just wait until the FED actually pulls back on their buying or stops it completely - this drop will seem like a blip on the radar. As a whole the data does not support the current market valuation, that does not mean there will not be value or returns to be had even in a down market. Smart investors and managers can maximize returns in Bull markets, but only the truly brilliant can during a Bear market. I think the next 24 months is going to be very rocky for most sectors, but historically the market is cyclical and those who get in on the ground floor are much better off. But if you can't handle the volatility buy insurance based products and build in some certainty.
persianpirate Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 yea...interesting timing on this thread Pres!
jdo2110 Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 Alright guys, bare with me, I know little on this topic.... There was talk at work the other day that all the big business guys in the U.S. are dropping American stocks in favor of international. That all the money dumped into the market hasn't corrected itself yet, and that the NYSE will fall dramatically. Can someone school me on this a little? I have a modest retirement being built, but I REALLY took it on the nose a few years ago (like we all did). If the big-timers pull their money out of the market, won't that hasten a downward spiral? I'd really like to understand this a little better
Orion21 Posted June 20, 2013 Posted June 20, 2013 In my opinion it's the effect of QE 1, QE 2 and QE Infinity that has caused the volatility in recent months/years. When QE 1 stopped the markets pulled back close to 16% and when QE 2 stopped it pulled back close to 18% from the highs. The main problem is The FED believes everything is going well enough that it can justify slowly weening the markets off the 10's of billions of dollars it has pumped into the bond market every month since 2010. It may be so, but now that all of this "free" money is about to be pulled people are going to panic and sell. I won't speculate about how low it could go, but 15k is VERY high. To address your comments about buying international . . . my question would be where? Inflation and high interest rates are ravaging China, Europe is in horrible shape, the Middle East is a powder keg etc. There is no safe haven for investors of equity based investments. But like I said, value and returns can be found if you have the expertise and experience to find them. I can't give specific advice online, but they are there and the market does tend to perform over the long run. To what extent it will in the future is anyone's guess. A mountain chart showing 10% average returns over 20 years can easily show 5% average returns if 5 day later the market was higher than when the original chart was graphed....
mk05 Posted June 21, 2013 Posted June 21, 2013 Well look at the FRM rate for US. At least we have that going for us...wait
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