Analysis of Competition & Predictions

[Peter11216]

The blind tasting competition is pretty exciting, if you ask me. After the first set of results came in, I thought it might be fun to make some predictions about the end results, and speculate a little on what the data tells us.

First, I made a little chart of the results by marca, showing how many times each was chosen. According to my count (done with my finger hovering over the screen), there were a total of 16 different marcas chosen as possibilities by participants. Of those, 11 have more or less an even distribution of 1 or 2 participants choosing each one. The most popular choice was PLPC, coming in a 14, while the Siglo II came in at 6 along with three other marcas, the Bolivar PC, the Monte 4, and H. Upmann PC.

I am rather perplexed by the results. On the one hand, the data doesn't look random, but on the other the plurality choice, PLPC, was more than twice as likely as the correct choice, Cohiba Siglo II.

After reading CanuckSARTech's thoughtful and reasoned review, which lead to his correct choice, I wondered who of the six contenders for the entire prize might correctly identify the next two sticks,---especially, because CanuckSARTech only gave himself 7:3 odds of being correct. If, for example, the odds stay at 7:3 for the next two, then the odds of him correctly getting the next two sticks will be 49:51. Thus, the poll.

My prediction, not knowing anything more than these results, is that no one is able to correctly identify all three . . . however, I'm very unsure about that. If every contender has a 50% chance, then there is pretty likely going to be at least one winner. It is hard to figure the odds, though. Next competition we should set up a betting pool.

Another way of structuring the competition would be to allow participants to pick two, three or more choices for each stick, ranking them in order of what they feel is there best guess. Then assign points more the the first choice, less to the next and so on. The person with the most points wins, of course. This would reduce the possibility, I think, of a high number of participants tying for two correct choices.

This looks like a very tough competition, so my admiration to all those who are giving it a go.

Best,

Pete

[Colt45]

I like a good cigar........

Only slightly more seriously, I think that while the various marques each do have a "brand profile", Cuban cigars also share traits that make

them more similar to each other than we might casually realize.

I also think that these type of blind tastings often are more a process of elimination rather than an ability to firmly define what it is we are

smoking, especially when you throw in the inconsistency factor - you can end up with a crap shoot.

[dB69]

Haha, a good way to add some pressure for the six gentlemen.

Intelligent speak from Colt45.

A bit "dirty" conclusion: Why to buy Cohibas for a double price compared to the other marques?

[PigFish]

I like a good cigar........

Only slightly more seriously, I think that while the various marques each do have a "brand profile", Cuban cigars also share traits that make

them more similar to each other than we might casually realize.

I also think that these type of blind tastings often are more a process of elimination rather than an ability to firmly define what it is we are

smoking, especially when you throw in the inconsistency factor - you can end up with a crap shoot.

I have done this before. I correctly identified 3 or so out of 11 cigars, not of my choosing. I frankly don't believe in "profiles" as a generality. Cohiba does have a sour bean taste to me that I really like when well aged. As far as profile goes I think Cohbia, due to its 3rd fermentation is the most individual brand of cigars. With that said, and with the results clear by this test, there really is no such thing as brand profile. I guessed that no one would win this contest. With the field down to 6 potential winners from the first round, I doubt there will be a winner, even when you consider each cigar tested represents an independent event.

I contend there is no such thing as a Cuban cigar "profile." -Piggy

[El Presidente]

Keep in mind if there is no winner then the prize is split and a credit goes to those who pick 2 out of 3.

To me anyway, young PLPC and young CSII share plenty of traits.

[dB69]

I have done this before. I correctly identified 3 or so out of 11 cigars, not of my choosing. I frankly don't believe in "profiles" as a generality. Cohiba does have a sour bean taste to me that I really like when well aged. As far as profile goes I think Cohbia, due to its 3rd fermentation is the most individual brand of cigars. With that said, and with the results clear by this test, there really is no such thing as brand profile. I guessed that no one would win this contest. With the field down to 6 potential winners from the first round, I doubt there will be a winner, even when you consider each cigar tested represents an independent event.

I contend there is no such thing as a Cuban cigar "profile." -Piggy

As there are differencies (or are there?) between different Cuban cigars and the marque is not the factor, then what would you personally think to be the most important factors to make the differencies?

- The manufacturing month/year?

- The harvest month/year?

- The vitola?

- The roller?

- Some other reason perhaps?

[Van55]

I cast my vote for "no one." I think I was very lucky to correctly guess the Siglo II. While there are fewer marcas to guess from when it comes to Robustos and fewer still to guess from among the Pyramides, I still think blind tasting identification is very, very difficult. Anyone who correctly identifies all three mystery cigars will be either very very lucky or has a truly amazing and enviable palate/memory.

[ChanceSchmerr]

I have done this before. I correctly identified 3 or so out of 11 cigars, not of my choosing. I frankly don't believe in "profiles" as a generality. Cohiba does have a sour bean taste to me that I really like when well aged. As far as profile goes I think Cohbia, due to its 3rd fermentation is the most individual brand of cigars. With that said, and with the results clear by this test, there really is no such thing as brand profile. I guessed that no one would win this contest. With the field down to 6 potential winners from the first round, I doubt there will be a winner, even when you consider each cigar tested represents an independent event.

I contend there is no such thing as a Cuban cigar "profile." -Piggy

My lack of experience notwithstanding - I think there is such thing as a Cuban Cigar profile - at least there was and should be. Why else have differentiation between marcas? Perhaps not as profound as in the past when Corojo/Criollo was used, but I really think the profile is there, and more profoundly noted when trying NC's alongside a Cuban. But that's just one man's opinion - and I was dead wrong on Cigar #1 anyway, so what do I know? All I can say is Cigar#1's metallic sweetness was a dead ringer for all those crummy RyJ's that i've tried and hated, so my shock at finding out it was a Sig II really has me thrown for a loop.

I do believe that someone will win with 3 of 3 - like Rob pointed out somewhere -the PC was the hardest to nail - the next two cigars have much smaller numbers of marcas to choose from.

[PigFish]

My lack of experience notwithstanding - I think there is such thing as a Cuban Cigar profile - at least there was and should be. Why else have differentiation between marcas? Perhaps not as profound as in the past when Corojo/Criollo was used, but I really think the profile is there, and more profoundly noted when trying NC's alongside a Cuban. But that's just one man's opinion - and I was dead wrong on Cigar #1 anyway, so what do I know? All I can say is Cigar#1's metallic sweetness was a dead ringer for all those crummy RyJ's that i've tried and hated, so my shock at finding out it was a Sig II really has me thrown for a loop.

I do believe that someone will win with 3 of 3 - like Rob pointed out somewhere -the PC was the hardest to nail - the next two cigars have much smaller numbers of marcas to choose from.

I am not saying Cuban cigars don't taste Cuban. I am saying there is no taste that is Bolivar. There is no taste that is Partagas. If one thinks there is... so be it, but I would argue the case.

There could be profiles if the tobacco was chopped and homogenized like a cigarette, but whole leaf tobacco makes for difficult blending. Cigars are not batch blended like wine, beer and spirits. The fact that Cuban cigars are good cigars, and that they vary is what I like about them. I would get bored smoking the same cigar day in and day out. I too look for profiles, I would like to believe it, but experiments like this one prove that they are a myth.

I look at cigars like I do "speaking in Tongues." If it were a true language then others could understand it and all conclude the same thing from one who speaks it. Without true definable and identifiable characteristics, there are no profiles. JMHO.

I believe the profile myth is another example of egocentric importance of the "Golden Tongued Guru." -Piggy

[Van55]

"Golden Tongued Guru" -- perfect description of some of the self-appointed experts who ply the various cigar boards with their brilliance. They usually dispense false wisdom as if it were gospel.

That said, I do think that there are a relatively few people with really exceptional palates who can reliably discern tastes and flavors that distinguish, for example, Bolivar cigars from other marcas and one Bolivar vitola from another. I think these people have hyperosmia to a greater or lesser degree. I don't claim to be one of them.

[PigFish]

Have you changed your stance on ageing theories sir?

No, not at all. I just don't deliberately age cigars. I smoke the good ones that I am in the mood for and whatever I can't smoke today ages, rests, hangs out, is put away... etc., etc., for tomorrow. Aging cigars is a crapshoot since you never know what you are aging and whether it is either good stock of bad. You simply don't know if a cigar is good or bad until you smoke it!

I am glad that I have the ability to 'hoard' cigars. That is what I do! I am a hoarder, not a collector or a "habanos chronophile!" Now does that mean that I must reject any empirical data that I have about cigars...? Can I remember what I like and note it for reference? Sure I can but does it mean that the box of '95 Siglo 5's on the bottom shelf are gonna' be sublime? No it does not. I just have not got around to smoking them! If they are sublime I will smoke them all up!!! If not they will likely be there another 10 years!

I have smoked some older cigar that were really crap. Did age make them crap or were they always crap? I don't know. I have smoked some older cigars that were sublime, did age make them that way or were they great at 3 months of age? I don't know that either.

Perhaps it would have been better if I was specific and said, "I like Cohibas Lanceros from the early 90's!" That may have been more correct. Like most of you I "think" that age has an effect on cigars. Exactly what that effect is, is nothing but speculation on my part. I have attributed some of what I like in older Cohibas to age. You are right on calling me on it.... I may be totally wrong about age being a factor.

-Piggy

[rahko]

I am not saying Cuban cigars don't taste Cuban. I am saying there is no taste that is Bolivar. There is no taste that is Partagas.

Cohiba does have a sour bean taste to me that I really like when well aged.

This does seem like a contradiction though?

Doesn't the high number of contestants who chose PLPC also imply that there are qualities which for many are identifiable, and therefore categorized? Isn't this the definition of a marca? Even if the samples in question weren't exactly uniform...

I agree that the differentiation between brands isn't as clear cut as perhaps perceived, but I also think a lot of the confusion stems from the fact that we all taste differently, for anatomical reasons alone, not to mention all the other highly subjective issues that come into play.

[thechenman]

So what is the lesson learned here...well...I guess the economic lesson would be that if Siglo IIs taste like PLPCs to you, you could save yourself a whole hell of a lotta money by buying PLPCs instead of Siglo IIs and get a very similar smoking experience. How many people would buy into that?

[sepp]

So what is the lesson learned here...well...I guess the economic lesson would be that if Siglo IIs taste like PLPCs to you, you could save yourself a whole hell of a lotta money by buying PLPCs instead of Siglo IIs and get a very similar smoking experience. How many people would buy into that?

At three years age these are different cigars by far! IMHO.

[Colt45]

I surely have expectations as to flavor characteristics when I smoke many cigars. Whether the differences outweigh the similarities enough for me

to be able to discern one cigar from another in a blind tasting is not so cut and dried.

The simple fact that there are cigar blenders makes me believe that they are trying to achieve some sort of overall characteristics, profile, however

we want to define it. I tend to doubt that they are blending to achieve flavor as I perceive it - leather, cream, marshmellow, etc, but I do believe they

are blending to certain characteristics / profiles nonetheless.

Wine is blended in bulk, which no doubt helps in maintaining consistency from bottle to bottle, and I agree this is much more difficult to achieve from

cigar to cigar (especially Cuban cigars), but in both cases, I do feel that they are blending to achieve / maintain a kind of "profile".

I guess if profile is a myth, that there is a bright side - we no longer have to lament the passing of discontinued cigars - as there is little distinction

between marques, we can grab anything and enjoy

[CBL]

Although I have a favorite in this competition, I chose for the option that no one will get all three. The only reason I guessed the right one in a long line of Petit Coronas is because I narrowed it down to cabinet packaging due to it not being boxpressed.

I kinda Slumdog Millionaired this one as I had smoked a Siglo II during New Years Eve that gave me a lash of red wine that was in the Mystery Cigar as well. I'm pretty worried about the next one because I haven't smoked that many different Robustos and there's no giveaways this time

But it's still very interesting to read all the different reviews of the same cigar!

[dicko]

The exercise definitely challenges some notions of a marca "profile" for me. I still think they exist.

I made the mistake of taking to much of the appearance into my guess, didn't look anything like a cohiba wrapper from what ive seen but looked like a boli PC so maybe my mind suggested things too early also it did look like a PLPC with that rustic toothy wrapper.

really enjoying this game can't wait for round 2!! (cigar into dry box as we speak )

[PigFish]

I surely have expectations as to flavor characteristics when I smoke many cigars. Whether the differences outweigh the similarities enough for me

to be able to discern one cigar from another in a blind tasting is not so cut and dried.

The simple fact that there are cigar blenders makes me believe that they are trying to achieve some sort of overall characteristics, profile, however

we want to define it. I tend to doubt that they are blending to achieve flavor as I perceive it - leather, cream, marshmellow, etc, but I do believe they

are blending to certain characteristics / profiles nonetheless.

Wine is blended in bulk, which no doubt helps in maintaining consistency from bottle to bottle, and I agree this is much more difficult to achieve from

cigar to cigar (especially Cuban cigars), but in both cases, I do feel that they are blending to achieve / maintain a kind of "profile".

I guess if profile is a myth, that there is a bright side - we no longer have to lament the passing of discontinued cigars - as there is little distinction

between marques, we can grab anything and enjoy

One thing I like about your process Ross is that you think out of the box. I tend to get my neurons stimulated (I don't want any misunderstanding about being stimulated...-LOL) by this type of thinking. Furthermore I see this comment, while possibly not directly, pointed at me. In that spirit I will reply.

What I am worried about in killing cigars is the loss of good, great and excellent cigars. I am not worried about a flavor profile. You are exactly right about that. Flavor profiles may or may not exist, may or may not have ever existed... but I know that when I pick up a Diplo 1, I will often get a good smoking experience. I don't want to lose great tasting, reasonably priced, pungent cigars. For years I have been discussing smoking experience... not flavor profiles. I have granted the cigar blender the latitde that blending a consistent tasting cigar is a challenge. I don't grant the same latitude for the blender when it comes to making a great tasting cigar. The components are there everyday to make a great cigar, Bolivar, RyJ, Diplo, Cohiba or otherwise. Like I said many times. **** the shiny box and bands, just give me a good cigar. I don't even care what brand it is!!! I just want a good cigar! I have preached this openly for a decade now!

Should we not worry? I think we should! Look at what we are getting instead. We are getting flagship cigars that are recognized by low percentage participants. Many participants rated this cigar average or below. What a damn shame!!!

Do I know the cause? No I don't, but like many I can guess. H SA et al does not give a damn about their product anymore. Crank out Cohibas and Montes as fast as the box maker can make boxes and sell them to those that they perceive have no taste. I mean who here finds this acceptable? I don't.

As a result of economic times I have not bought a box of cigars in over a year now. Thank God I have hoarded the ones I like to smoke. I won't be buying **** stix like these for as many years as I can hold out!!! Am I WINNING doing this? **** no! I love Cuban cigars. I want more Cuban cigars. I like to know that my supply of great cigars is growing not diminishing. These guys have screwed me over as a customer as a result of this type of thinking and killing good cigars in the process.

I still preach that the best cigars are made in smaller quantities and under lesser names. I think overproduction kills the great name cigars. It is just a hunch, but these tests tend to evedence my theories.

Lastly and importantly... I am condemning H SA et al on many levels and certainly not just based on one PC from a few boxes of one vintage and based on one brand. I see this decay as endemic in Cuba now. And frankly, it bothers me to see the best cigars in the world make a move from "on high" to simply mediocre! I think this industry is moving away from customers like me. I don't claim any expert status... I am just a guy interested in good cigars at a fair price, not embossed boxes, or flashy bands. I don't wear $300.00 tennys, nor homage basketball jerseys, nor do I smoke $100.00 cigars. Frankly I would prefer a $2.00 cigar that rocks my world!

Guys can tell Coke from Pepsi, Coors from Bud... but only 10% can tell Cohiba from horse ****!!! That is a travesty! Talk about branding issues. This one takes the cake!

Cheers mate. -P

[Tarks]

One thing I like about your process Ross is that you think out of the box. I tend to get my neurons stimulated (I don't want any misunderstanding about being stimulated...-LOL) by this type of thinking. Furthermore I see this comment, while possibly not directly, pointed at me. In that spirit I will reply.

What I am worried about in killing cigars is the loss of good, great and excellent cigars. I am not worried about a flavor profile. You are exactly right about that. Flavor profiles may or may not exist, may or may not have ever existed... but I know that when I pick up a Diplo 1, I will often get a good smoking experience. I don't want to lose great tasting, reasonably priced, pungent cigars. For years I have been discussing smoking experience... not flavor profiles. I have granted the cigar blender the latitde that blending a consistent tasting cigar is a challenge. I don't grant the same latitude for the blender when it comes to making a great tasting cigar. The components are there everyday to make a great cigar, Bolivar, RyJ, Diplo, Cohiba or otherwise. Like I said many times. **** the shiny box and bands, just give me a good cigar. I don't even care what brand it is!!! I just want a good cigar! I have preached this openly for a decade now!

Should we not worry? I think we should! Look at what we are getting instead. We are getting flagship cigars that are recognized by low percentage participants. Many participants rated this cigar average or below. What a damn shame!!!

Do I know the cause? No I don't, but like many I can guess. H SA et al does not give a damn about their product anymore. Crank out Cohibas and Montes as fast as the box maker can make boxes and sell them to those that they perceive have no taste. I mean who here finds this acceptable? I don't.

As a result of economic times I have not bought a box of cigars in over a year now. Thank God I have hoarded the ones I like to smoke. I won't be buying **** stix like these for as many years as I can hold out!!! Am I WINNING doing this? **** no! I love Cuban cigars. I want more Cuban cigars. I like to know that my supply of great cigars is growing not diminishing. These guys have screwed me over as a customer as a result of this type of thinking and killing good cigars in the process.

I still preach that the best cigars are made in smaller quantities and under lesser names. I think overproduction kills the great name cigars. It is just a hunch, but these tests tend to evedence my theories.

Lastly and importantly... I am condemning H SA et al on many levels and certainly not just based on one PC from a few boxes of one vintage and based on one brand. I see this decay as endemic in Cuba now. And frankly, it bothers me to see the best cigars in the world make a move from "on high" to simply mediocre! I think this industry is moving away from customers like me. I don't claim any expert status... I am just a guy interested in good cigars at a fair price, not embossed boxes, or flashy bands. I don't wear $300.00 tennys, nor homage basketball jerseys, nor do I smoke $100.00 cigars. Frankly I would prefer a $2.00 cigar that rocks my world!

Guys can tell Coke from Pepsi, Coors from Bud... but only 10% can tell Cohiba from horse ****!!! That is a travesty! Talk about branding issues. This one takes the cake!

Cheers mate. -P

Great post!

I like your opinion on smoking experiences rather than flavor profiles. There are so many variables that contribute to a good or bad smoking experience. I would guess that only 25% of an experience is actually the cigar. Mood, atmosphere, weather, taste buds, company, beverage are examples that play a huge part of the smoking experience. That is what I love about this great hobby! I can take an "average at best" cigar and combine it with great company, a great drink, a beautiful day in a fantastic setting and turn it into a fantastic smoking experience! I live for those moments in time.

[Colt45]

Furthermore I see this comment, while possibly not directly, pointed at me. In that spirit I will reply.

First and foremost, thank you for clearing up the stimulation point...

The joke about discontinued cigars was obviously for you, but I guess I shouldn't say such things so loudly - we don't need to give corporate any more ideas

Though based off some of your commentary, the rest as you might expect is just meant to be part of the conversation. I think we are pretty much in agreement

on the basic issues. The one that kind of tickles my fancy is the branding aspect - if you have a company or product, you have to call it something.

In the current state of the Cuban cigar industry, I think that perhaps the individual brand names probably do mean less now than when the factories and brands

were privately owned. So let's say competition finally opens up for cigars in Cuba.....

Roberto opens a factory, and comes up with a brand - Corazón de Cuba. He may initially blend his cigars to taste a certain way, or perhaps more of a "house style"

to borrow a wine term. Season after season he may painstakingly work to maintain the flavor or style of his cigars.

Or..........

Perhaps instead he decides that each season he will evaluate the harvest and simply try to produce the best cigar possible with what nature and good production

methods have provided, with maybe the thought of trying to not go from one extreme to another, style - wise. I think that as long as the cigars tasted great and

construction was spot on, I'd be happy either way, and perhaps either way the brand would stand more for a great smoking experience versus a particular "profile".

[El Presidente]

Roberto opens a factory, and comes up with a brand - Corazón de Cuba. He may initially blend his cigars to taste a certain way, or perhaps more of a "house style"

to borrow a wine term. Season after season he may painstakingly work to maintain the flavor or style of his cigars.

Or..........

Perhaps instead he decides that each season he will evaluate the harvest and simply try to produce the best cigar possible with what nature and good production

methods have provided, with maybe the thought of trying to not go from one extreme to another, style - wise. I think that as long as the cigars tasted great and

construction was spot on, I'd be happy either way, and perhaps either way the brand would stand more for a great smoking experience versus a particular "profile".

Great question Colt.

My thoughts are that in trying to maintain a "blend profile" you may restrict how great any given batch of cigars cigar can be.

Personally, I would let the leaf speak fro itself to the best of its ability. If 2010 is spicier than 2011 which may be creamier then let it be. Just get the absolute best out of the leaf you are working with and let it express itself. Like some wine, on the inside lid of the box would be a summary of the conditions from the years of the leaf used, a tasting note by the blender and a signature by the roller. Simple.

[nonameno]

Hello Fellow FOHer's,

This has sure been a lot of fun and educational. Playing devil's advocate, if there are no brand or flavor profiles, and we cannot differentiate between the Marques, doesn't it really bring into question this whole website? Why do we then select one brand over another? I can understand differnent vitolas based upon size preferences or time constraints. If this is the case, we should have the Czar just remove all bands and use unmarked boxes, and select cigars solely based upon look, feel and aroma, and then we would simply select our vitola and our grade (PE, HQ or PSP). Would HSA get the message?

Thank you,

Curtiss

[CanuckSARTech]

Boy, fellas - sure, ratchet up the pressure for the upcoming two cigars!!!!

I'm hopeful to be there in the home stretch. I'm a robusto and piramide fan, so we'll have to wait and see. The robusto I'm a bit iffy on at cold as it is, but I'm already 70/30 set on what I think the piramide is, just with the at-cold properties and before the smoking even beings. Fingers crossed. But, if I am successful, I do think that this may end up turning into a split pot - I'm worried about CBL and BolivarSmoker and Van. Their notes have me worried as to the tastebuds that I'm competing against!

All that said, all six of us could completely screw the pooch in the next two rounds, and potentially all get everything else wrong. Who knows.

And Piggy - I agree with everything that you (and also especially Colt's points/counter-points) have said. However, the one exception is that I definitely do think that there's a taste profile that's there with Cuban cigars. Is it perfect? Hell no! But I do think that they blend to try to meet a particular profile/taste (as has been stated/quoted numerous times by varied sources). I realize that lots of statements could just be for sales/advertising aspects, but I don't think with this. As Pres (I believe) said earlier, H S.A. employs blenders who work on a "recipe". I completely think that's there. There are definitely deviations and outright flops from time to time. But there's a true focus on trying to obtain a flavour profile. I really notice this, despite all of their horrible faults and mass-production cons, with the Montecristo line especially. Many others have it too, in stronger levels (R&J [although shitty recently], Partagas, Diplomaticos, RA, SCDLH), and on finer/lighter levels (Trinidad, Cohiba, LGC, etc.). But I really feel that a "profile" is in play.

And, if you agree or not, and if you find you don't like those '95 Sig V's, I'd be more than happy to take them off of your hands....

[CanuckSARTech]

The blind tasting competition is pretty exciting, if you ask me. After the first set of results came in, I thought it might be fun to make some predictions about the end results, and speculate a little on what the data tells us.

First, I made a little chart of the results by marca, showing how many times each was chosen. According to my count (done with my finger hovering over the screen), there were a total of 16 different marcas chosen as possibilities by participants. Of those, 11 have more or less an even distribution of 1 or 2 participants choosing each one. The most popular choice was PLPC, coming in a 14, while the Siglo II came in at 6 along with three other marcas, the Bolivar PC, the Monte 4, and H. Upmann PC.

I am rather perplexed by the results. On the one hand, the data doesn't look random, but on the other the plurality choice, PLPC, was more than twice as likely as the correct choice, Cohiba Siglo II.

After reading CanuckSARTech's thoughtful and reasoned review, which lead to his correct choice, I wondered who of the six contenders for the entire prize might correctly identify the next two sticks,---especially, because CanuckSARTech only gave himself 7:3 odds of being correct. If, for example, the odds stay at 7:3 for the next two, then the odds of him correctly getting the next two sticks will be 49:51. Thus, the poll.

My prediction, not knowing anything more than these results, is that no one is able to correctly identify all three . . . however, I'm very unsure about that. If every contender has a 50% chance, then there is pretty likely going to be at least one winner. It is hard to figure the odds, though. Next competition we should set up a betting pool.

Another way of structuring the competition would be to allow participants to pick two, three or more choices for each stick, ranking them in order of what they feel is there best guess. Then assign points more the the first choice, less to the next and so on. The person with the most points wins, of course. This would reduce the possibility, I think, of a high number of participants tying for two correct choices.

This looks like a very tough competition, so my admiration to all those who are giving it a go.

Best,

Pete

And Pete....

GODDAMN, brother!!!! Holy hell [your welcome, KG ], did you ever put a lot of thought into that?!!?!

Don't overanalyze it too much, man! You'll take all the fun out of it. I didn't realize that I'd be the focus of a potential downfall with all this! LOL. Ohhhhh, the pressure!!!!

[Psssstt.....I'll take odds on myself splitting the prize with BolivarSmoker! ]

[Peter11216]

Oh, I haven't even started yet. I do love looking at data like this, though. I'm eagerly awaiting more results of El Prez's survey of members satisfaction with various cigars - to check for correlations with price, marca, vitola etc.

Nonetheless, sorry for burdening you and all with what you accurately call over-analysis, though as I say, I would still like to do more.

And, also, I hope it didn't offend you to mention you in particular, it was just that I had recently read your review, and was impressed!

I really do think that the next time around, it would be fun to set up a betting pool.

Are you into wine? I should maybe start a thread on the drinks discussion about this - but there have been some economic analyses of wine judges consistency. See for example "An Examination of Judge Reliability at a major U.S. Wine Competition"

Apparently, in the competition in question, only about 10% of the judges could replicate their scores reliably, though about half seem to be rating wine based on other factors besides quality.

Best,

Pete

And Pete....

GODDAMN, brother!!!! Holy hell [your welcome, KG ], did you ever put a lot of thought into that?!!?!

Don't overanalyze it too much, man! You'll take all the fun out of it. I didn't realize that I'd be the focus of a potential downfall with all this! LOL. Ohhhhh, the pressure!!!!

[Psssstt.....I'll take odds on myself splitting the prize with BolivarSmoker! ]