ATGroom

Cuba keeps enough tobacco in storage to cope with three poor harvests in a row. The 2020/21 season was lost due to covid restrictions (pickers couldn't get to the fields) The 2021/22 season was lost for the same reasons. The 2022/23 season was lost due to Hurricane Ian. The 2023/24 season was a little better, but still way down because they hadn't rebuilt many of the curing barns that were demolished by Ian, so no matter how much they planted they were limited in how much they could cure. The 2024/25 season was a little better again, but that tobacco won't be rolled for another year or two.

Very bizarrely given the Australian legal situation for cigars, I know of three other high-end cigar places that are deep into the process and should be opening in Sydney in the next year or so... this is after 20 year period of decline of cigar friendly venues in Australia that had more or less seen them go extinct. Perhaps Sydney is the new Hong Kong?

Habanos' strategy since Allied Cigar took over Imperial's stake in 2020 has been to do more with less - higher prices across the board, and increased focus on specialties. It's worked fantastically well, and their revenues keep growing while their costs keep shrinking. At current production levels and pricing they are unable to meet the demand, so if anything the logical thing for them to do is increase prices further. Production for the foreseeable future will be constrained by Cuba's economic issues, and seems more likely to fall than it does to grow. In the unlikely event that somehow gets sorted out and supply starts to exceed demand... well, firstly they'll start rebuilding stockpiles which will take several years, but if they have a decade of great harvests, and they somehow manage to fill every rolling desk in all the factories, it still seems more probable that they'd limit production artificially than drop prices. If anything, I think they'd introduce some new lower priced lines before they'd lower the prices of their premium brands. Demand at the moment is high because there is a cigar boom. That won't last forever. The Chinese market might go away if the government there decides to kill it off (they have been making some moves towards this for years to boost their own cigar industry, and there may eventually be a public health drive against smoking). There is still the Indian middle class yet to come into the market in a big way. Plus, there is always the question of the eventual end to the embargo and the US market coming for Cuban cigars. In the short-medium term demand seems like it will still be there. There is a rumour going around that Allied Cigar is looking to sell their stake, or in some tellings already has sold part or all of it. So, I suppose there is some chance that a new owner might come along with some radically different strategy that involves lowering prices. Seems unlikely though.

I saw a French movie a few months ago called 'How To Make a Killing' (Un ours dans le Jura). Towards the end of the film the cop thinks that he has solved the crime and to celebrate he orders a "30 euro cigar", which is clearly a Guantanamera Cristales.

Nope. The head logo is very poorly aligned within the leaf. Low quality fake. Even if it was perfect though, the fact is that 99.9% of the boxes with this design are fake. If you have to ask the question then yours most certainly is one of them.

The world wasn't that different. Very low grade fake.

Code is correct for El Laguito in 2004. This style of box is still produced for VIP gifts. Castro is known to have frequently signed boxes over the years. In 2004 he was still active, travelling, meeting people etc. I don't have any expertise in signature analysis, but it seems enough like his to me. This is one of the most commonly counterfeited boxes in the world, but the box printing all looks fine, without any of the common signs of counterfeit examples of these. There are plenty of good counterfeits out there these days though. There is nothing particularly complicated about the design. So... in conclusion, who knows. I don't see anything wrong with it, but would like to see a letter from whoever received it telling the story, preferably with a photo of Castro handing them the box.

In Australia we had been moving towards a cash-free society for some time, but it really went universal during the Covid era. As far as I know, most places will still technically accept cash if want to use it, but they certainly don't expect cash. I.e., you order your coffee and the server will automatically key the amount in and offer you the debit machine...if you then pull a note out they will say "oohhhh" and fumble around cancelling the transaction and finding you change. People in the line behind you might roll their eyes. Which leads to the next issue - almost all small businesses in Australia now add the credit card fee (generally 1.4%) to your order. So we've quietly all accepted an extra 1.4% tax on our entire spend.

At titbit I heard in Havana last week was that apparently when the Partagas factory moved ~2010 they threw out their archive. Since then, when they need to roll an old format for a festival humidor or something, they look up the size on CCW. Kinda makes me feel as if I might have some leverage...

I was in Havana for 10 days for the festival. Just my observations. The Blackouts: I was in a cheap hotel for the first five days. Most of the time I would leave the hotel at 9am at return at 3am. I wasn't ever aware of a blackout. After five days I moved into a private apartment in Vedado, sharing with Rob Fox. Again, I didn't notice any blackouts, however, Rob complained about them a few times. I think the main reason he noticed them and I didn't was because I had a Cuban SIM in my phone and Rob was relying on wifi. There was one occasion when I was in a rooftop bar overlooking the suburbs of Havana at night, and everything except the hotels went dark for about ten minutes. In the bar things were unaffected. That said, I can't imagine the disruption that any duration of blackout would cause in the west. The Internet Access: The wifi in the convention centre and at the festival events was unreliable for sure. Sometimes the network wasn't transmitting, other times it wouldn't accept the password that Habanos had advertised. I guess Brooks was relying on wifi. If you're going to Havana, get a local SIM. Cost was very low (I think around $5 for the week and I still had credit left over). Speed was perfectly adequate and no issues with coverage, even out into the countryside. The Money Situation: You can pay everywhere in USD (or Euro at 1:1 exchange rate) no issue. You're crazy if you do that in the government hotels, because they'll give you a USD price that is 3x what you would pay in pesos. Anywhere private they will take dollars or pesos at the market rate (~340:1), but they prefer dollars. You need a mix of both. You can probably even rely on your credit card in most places, but again, you'll get the official exchange rate at any government place. The Transportation Options: One difference from last year is that the taxi drivers seem to try and push you a lot more. Ie, there are certain expected prices like $10 from Old Havana to Vedado, $15 to Miramar. Every driver will ask you for $20 or $30. If you push back they cave immediately. But last year they would just give you the 'correct' price up front. Even at the expected prices, they're close to 2x what you would pay for an Uber in Australia for the same distance. A driver is $30 per day, so if you're making multiple trips to the convention centre and back, it's worth getting a driver, albeit less convenient than just grabbing the nearest taxi as you have to text them and wait. A worthwhile thing is getting the Cuban equivalent of Uber, an app called La Navi. You need a Cuban SIM and good enough Spanish. You will pay in pesos at less than 30% of the taxi rate. If you speak fluent Spanish and look Cuban then even more worthwhile than that is catching the local car services (basically there are cars that regularly drive a system of routes around the city, similar to a bus). People hop in and out like a bus. Miramar to old Havana in one of those will cost 200 pesos (60c). I discussed gas prices with my driver at one point, and he told me that gas was 120 pesos per litre if you wait in line for three days, or 500 pesos if you buy it black market. The black market price is about 20% higher than you would pay in Australia. The official rate obviously much lower. The Restaurants: expect every restaurant to have half their menu unavailable at any given time, but you won't starve. Attending the Festival: I didn't have any problem getting a ticket in December through one of the distributors. Others did. Full ride was about $3300. If you consider the cigars we got - 10 BHKs of various sizes, 3 GRs, various new releases, more regular cigars than anyone could smoke, as much Isla de Tesoro rum as we could drink in one session, a few drams of Havana Club Maximo, other high end booze etc etc etc, there is an argument to be made that it's great value. On the flip side, every event had problems of one kind or another. I had a great time. Others didn't. You need to have a certain level of "go with the flow" to make it at the festival. The Country is Suffering: I hate to imagine the number of people that are killed by building collapse each year in Havana. So many buildings have many chunks of concrete missing, exposed rusting rebar, and very sketchy looking everything. Piles of rubble are very common. The sidewalks in many places are akin to walking on rough rocks at the beach. The roads have potholes as big as cars. One thing I was really aware of in the back streets was the piles of garbage everywhere that I think is new since last year, or at least noticeably increased. I saw multiple people overturning dumpsters and picking through them. They leave aluminium cans and plastic bottles though, so not sure what they're looking for. Some people were saying that the city is empty: not really true in my experience. There are always people around at all hours listing to music, kids playing stickball etc. There were always touts and hustlers in Old Havana, even on my first visit in 2006, but they seem more aggressive these days.. Every three meters "hello, where you from? You want taxi? Cigars? Restaurant? Girls?" Annoying enough that I would avoid Old Havana because of them. Very few actual beggars. You do see them once in a while, but about 10x less than I see walking around the downtown in Melbourne. Of my Cuban friends, one has migrated (but says he's coming back), one is talking about migrating, and two are very adamant that they will never leave (one is delighted by the cheap house prices). In general the people on the streets have clean clothes, neat haircuts, and look healthy. It's not the hellscape that many articles you see on FoH portray. But it is definitely a poor country with significant issues, and it's hard to see a pathway for things to improve.

Thanks all for your well wishes. Please note that things panned out just as I said they would in the prediction thread a few weeks ago.😁 I'm not too bummed as the way these things work is that it is a track, and once you are nominated the first time you are on your way. Alex Dandy has been on the track longer than I have, so this was his year. Kirby is also on the track. He has more detractors than I do, but if he handles himself in a reasonable way, I would say that most likely it will be him next year. The year after it will be my turn. If I don't have a trophy by 2028 then I'll be shutting down CCW until such time as it is delivered.

Seems like a total jinx to even consider that question. The reporting is a bit inaccurate fwiw: it's two boxes per year, and you can change each year.

Yes, regular production. The size is a bit unclear as the factory name is listed as Centrofinos, which is 50x130 and doesn't usually have a pigtail.

Thanks all for your kind words and support. It's a great honour. I stand by my comments from the prediction thread that I am at long odds to win it this year, but both the others are worthy candidates that I'll be happy to see win, and it shows that I'm at least I'm in the system enough to take it home someday.

Calling it the "Habanos Man of the Year" is a bit of a miss-translation. The award is "Hombre Habano" or "Habano Man" and it is given out annually, but it is more for lifetime achievement than for whoever did the best job this year. It is normal to be nominated a few times before winning. Jasim - already has one from 2023. Multiple awards are not unknown, but I think he is out of the running for 10 years or so. Alex Cigar Dandy - My money is on him. Has been nominated multiple times but not awarded. If he is nominated it is hard to see them snubbing him again. Kirby - Each way bet. Hard to beat by anyone except Alex Dandy. It is early in his 'career' as a Habano man, but he seems to have considerable favour in Cuba at the moment. Myself - very long odds. Whatever you think of my work, I have always been outside the system. My association with FoH and its regular anti-Revolution posts doesn't help.🤪 Laurent (HabanoNews) - As far as I know, you need to be present at the festival to receive the award.😁 Beyond those, there is a world of non-English language writers and influencers that are out there that are probably not on the radar of us on FoH. Basically, the way it works is that distributors can nominate a person they think is worthy and then make the case on their behalf. The winner is selected by HSA execs, but politics plays a big part.

Happy birthday, Rob! Sorry I couldn't make it.

The squares that light up depends on the size of the band. The 38-47rg band has four diagonal squares close to the Taino head. The 48-54rg band has two off far away near the end of the band (yours is correct) The 55-60rg has five in a W pattern also off near the end of the band (slightly closer) Not that you can tell all that much from the bands as the fakes have the UV perfected for a long time now.

Interesting. It must be serve some purpose. Total speculation...maybe it marks the start of a batch or something like that. Do you have a rough idea of the prevalence in the packs you've seen? I.e., number checked vs number found.

If they want to pay me in stock and can arrange to get it into Australia via the embassy's diplomatic bag, then we can probably make a deal... 😁

Europeans, Australians, and people from other friendly countries are normally able to travel to the US visa free with an ETSA. It's an electronic form that you fill in. Takes 5 minutes, minimal fee, instantly issued. One of the questions you need to answer for the ETSA is "have you visited a state sponsor of terrorism in the last 10 years?". If you answer "yes", which you should if you have visited Cuba, then your ETSA is rejected. You need to apply for a tourist visa. A tourist visa is a much more involved process where you need to send your passport away to the embassy to be evaluated, answer a lot more questions, and the fee is higher. If you hold a tourist visa and you then visit a state sponsor of terrorism again, in theory your visa is invalidated and you need to reapply. For people who wish to have the option to travel to or even transit through the US, many feel that visiting Cuba makes things too much of a hassle to be worthwhile. Ironically, the US government makes it easier for their own citizens to visit Cuba than for foreigners.

The boxes I found it on ranged 18-21. Most of the packs in my collection also bias around these dates, so it doesn't really say much about the overall distribution of these seals. I found it on all different brands and factories. I don't know, but I would guess that probably the display boxes leave the factory with the packs unsealed and the transit seal on the outer box. The packs are then inspected and sealed at the export warehouse, same as other boxes. So it would make sense that they aren't from any single factory. Seeing them on 10% of boxes ranging between 14-21 is a bit strange though. Implies multiple batches of seals in use at the warehouse simultaneously and likely this issue was present on multiple batches of seals produced over several years.

I think there was either a miscommunication between Rob and PCC on this one and/or he misspoke in the FoH post. I asked him about it at the time and he was a bit vague. In any case, I have spoken to other distributors myself and we have seen what has occurred in the market since then, which is: -There was a batch of genuine Cohiba bands around in 2023 that had no UV markings due to a factory error. The UV on Cohiba bands have never been a very reliable indicator of anything as they are often removed or covered over by the tail of the band in the factories. In any case, the 'removal' only applied to one batch and new Cohiba in the market today continues to have UV markings (mostly). -There was never any removal of the UV on the warranty seals. Regarding the pack seals, yes, they have always had UV fluorescent crests going back into the 2000s... and so do the ones pictured in the original post. The centre seal has a bright green crest. On at least two of the others a faint blue crest is visible. I'm confident that if the poster had a darker room and a stronger torch, he would find a faint blue UV on all the packs. All the packs should have a microprinted number in the centre bottom of the seal. Normally, in a display box you will find five packs with immediately sequential numbers. I'm guessing that if @tbabes looks he will find that the green one is out of sequence. Probably it was replaced in a QC inspection at some point by Habanos/distributor/retailer. The question then becomes, are the light blue UVs a legitimate factory defect or are they a sign of a bogus seal? I checked packs from 50 boxes. I found the faint blue UVs on 5 of them from three different vendors, including the same vendor as the original post. The other two vendors are reputable but they are known to at least dabble in grey market. I did very close inspection on the boxes that had the UV packs, including very close analysis of their seals, bands holos, UVs etc etc. If they are fake then we have some big problems as they are serious superfakes with no other detectable flaws. If anybody has packs with the blue UVs from a 'known good' vendor then I would very much like to hear about it. Without that there is really no way to be sure, but given the otherwise high quality of the boxes I'm leaning that they are legit. Bear in mind, I am speaking here only of the UV on the pack seals and not on other issues with Siglo III boxes posted elsewhere.

Never heard of anyone selling a scam ticket, but stranger things have happened. A lot of people just really want the gifts and don't care too much about the parties, so if you just want to go to the party then you may be able to do a deal with someone to take their ticket and pick up their gifts for them. If you are determined to attend the festival and don't have a ticket then I wouldn't recommend showing up in Havana and trying your luck. But if you're happy to go with the flow and take the trip regardless of whether you end up at the festival or not, then you might get lucky.

In about November Habanos sent out an email announcing the dates for the festival. That was your cue to go to your local LCDH and sign up for a ticket. The LCDHs then put their order in with their distributor, who put their total regional order in with Habanos. This all was finalised by the end of December. If there is remaining allocation then Habanos will release it to the general public in January sometime. I've heard from some that because of the recent change to duty free laws in China a lot of the Chinese aren't coming, and that because the gala falls during Ramadan this year a lot of the middle eastern guys aren't coming. I've also heard from some that they weren't able to get tickets from their LCDH because the allocation was exhausted. So, who knows? You might get lucky. It also might be possible to buy a pass from someone in Cuba that week or otherwise finagle your way in, particularly if you just want to go to the event and don't mind if you don't get the gifts. Most stores in Havana will get a restock during Festival week. Only problem is, there are also plenty of buyers around, including those who aren't attending the festival and are just there to snipe the good stuff. With some good luck and greasing a few palms and you should be able to find whatever you're looking for. No idea about to China specifically, but they have DHL in Cuba which is as reliable as it is anywhere else in the world. Probably wouldn't bother with the regular mail. There are always a lot of Chinese buyers around so they must have some way of getting cigars out. There may be a Chinese courier company or something like that.

I don't know too much about Canadian taxes, but a quick Google seems it's 88% the value of the box? Australian tobacco excise is $2,101.89 AUD per kilogram, plus 10% of the value including the tax. So, on the CoRo in Rob's example, it would be the $612.44 + $61 for the excise, then another $300ish in tax on the box. Total tax about $860 CAD or about 30%. Much better to be Australian than Canadian on that one. If you're not buying Cohiba though, pretty much anything else we will be worse. Because it's mostly weight, the cheaper the cigar the worse our tax hits you as a percentage. I.e. if you bought in a box 25 of Guantanamera Cristales you would be looking at $520 AUD in the excise alone which would already be probably 300% of the box price.