democracy might just end up in a south america dictionary

[Ken Gargett]

from the wash post.

The Cuban daily Granma had so much faith in Chavez and his referendum that it had already announced his victory. To Castro, his disciple's defeat was unthinkable, so it took him by surprise. It meant that Chávez could not be reelected - yet Carlos Lage, Cuba's First Vice President, had publicly announced in Caracas in 2005 that Cuba, de facto, had two presidents: Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez.

Castro is dying and Chávez, unless he breaks the law, will cease to govern at the end of his current term. Now what?

In its 69 amendments, the proposed Venezuelan Constitutional reform laid down the groundwork to create a future federation between the Cuba and Venezuela. If both nations were to unite formally in the future, they needed to bring their legal systems closer together. Venezuela had to imitate the Cuban legislation, which in turn was inspired by the Soviet laws dictated in the 1930s, during the Stalin era. For now, that is no longer possible.

On the other hand, the Cuban government realizes that Chavismo is not a political party but a typical example of Latin American caudillismo, or strongman rule. There is no Chavismo without Chávez, and if he leaves Miraflores Palace, the transnational political project falls apart. It is true that in the past two years Chávez has attempted to create a party, but Havana knows that he hasn't accomplished that.

Why was Fidel Castro so intent on bequeathing to the Cuban people a Venezuelan leader? The answer is worrisome. It was a way to guarantee that the revolution would continue to be an instrument in the struggle against the United States and capitalism. He had selected Hugo Chávez because the Venezuelan leader had furnished the island with a huge volume of subsidies, worth about $4 billion a year.

But primarily because Castro could make sure that, after his impending death, the reformers in his government, led by his brother Raúl, wouldn't forget their revolutionary duties and turn to the creation of a single-party, iron-fisted capitalist system such as exists in China and Vietnam -- a model that the old Cuban commandante finds repugnant.

That means that the top-rank leaders, deep in their hearts, celebrated Chávez's defeat. Now, the reformers, wielding good arguments, can discourage a union between the two countries and explain that it is very dangerous for Cuba to gamble away its future by placing it in the hands of a precarious leader with his own uncertain future. It is true that Fidel Castro, even on his deathbed, keeps control over the reins of the regime, but he can no longer seriously say that Latin America is marching toward 21st-century socialism.

Judging from all the symptoms, the much-promised era of revitalization of Marx's ideas and objectives is beginning to weaken. It began to sink on Sunday, Dec. 2, and most likely will not last much longer.

[El Presidente]

Great article.

Cubans on average have no love for Venezuela. They see Chavez as Fidels lover and it irks them no end that they wait in hospital ques while Venezuelans recieve priority medical treatment. This year it is estimated 100,000 South and Central American patients will receive medical treatment in Cuba.

Raul, Alvarez and others look at the Chinese system as a model they wish to pursue but the one stumbling block is Fidel. Venezuela has been "used" by the Cubans to prop up serious capital (foreign currency) deficiencies via contra oil for medical and mineral/gas exploration rights.

No one in Cuba expects Chavez to cede power without a fight. Raul and Alvarez would love to see the back of him as well as Fidel.

[Ken Gargett]

bit tough to suggest raul wants to see the end of his brother.

[El Presidente]

» bit tough to suggest raul wants to see the end of his brother.

It's good to be king ;-)

[habanablue]

» bit tough to suggest raul wants to see the end of his brother.

He has only been waiting for 45 odd years or so...."just hurry up and let me have go big brother!"