Why Wine Disappears and Cigars Accumulate

[El Presidente]

During our Parallel Tasting review of the HDM Epi 2 and MOFOH Robusto Trinity yesterday (video up end of week), I had a conversation with Cliff (Glass Half Full) on the timing/consumption of cigars by the average punter/cigar smoker. I made the comment that I didn't think it was too different to wine. I made the comment that in Oz, the average bottle of wine is consumed within 90 minutes of purchase. It is a number I recall from a previous survey of wine drinkers in Australia. Now if you take restaurant and BBQ purchases into account it is probably correct. 

My thought process is one that I didn't think cigar purchases (globally) would be too different. Not everyone are FOH (or similar retail) buyers. How many cigars are consumed at the lounge (tasting/UK for example) or picked up on a Friday to be enjoyed over the weekend?. 

Our discussion on the video review was about how many people actually age (or at least rest) their cigars? We segued during the discussion as to the different thought processes between NC and CC buyers. 

So I took the question to ChatGPT/Gemini/Anthropic AI. 

Ageing by purchasers of wine/spirits/cigars. 

The results. 

The notes: 

“Based on aggregated industry scanner data, household panel surveys, excise replacement curves, distributor reorder behavior, and secondary-market holding patterns.”

One insight worth underlining 

Wine and spirits are depleted.
Cigars are accumulated.

This single behavioral difference explains:

• Secondary market depth

• Aging premiums

• Brand myth-building

• Why cigar collectors behave more like art collectors than drinkers

 

🚬 Cigars

This is where it gets interesting.

Primary sources & proxies

• Importer & distributor reorder lag

• Humidor capacity vs annual consumption studies

• Auction house re-entry timing
  (how long before a cigar reappears on secondary markets)

• FOH-style community self-reporting

• Cuban export data vs global consumption lag

• Aging-premium analysis (price appreciation vs time held)

What they consistently show

• Cigars are intentionally not consumed quickly

• Storage improves perceived value

• Large quantities are held years or decades

• A meaningful % are never smoked by the original buyer

 

I found it interesting at least 

Let us know where you fit?

 

 

[loose_axle]

Spirits I'll consume at anytime after purchase, and up to $25 a bottle with wine the same. 

But with cigars and the better wines I'm fascinated with aging and tasting and aging again so they get hoarded as long as I think I can go with them. 

[Li Bai]

I rarely smoke a cigar that's been purchased less than 6 months prior and with spirits, I have no rules.

On the other hand I never really went down the wine rabbit hole and I don't intend to (one more expensive hobby and I might end up living in a trailer park...).

I like wine (red wine in particular) and I'm lucky to have good mates in Bordeaux who supply me with nice bottles occasionnally but those don't last long.

 

[Christophe]

A rational reason for me to buy more cigars than I keep up with smoking is the regulatory pressure and potential supply chain disruptions. Buy 'em while you can, basically. I intend to smoke everything I have, and I intend to enjoy cigars for many more years than theywill probably be easily accessible or even available at the current pace. 

And while I'm sure the regulatory pressure on alcohol is ramping up as well, it's at least a few years to decades behind. Most spirits I want, I can buy at the click of a button. And I do mean literally pretty much anything. Even if I want to buy a specific single cask select rum from a specific year, it's likely gonna be available to ship to me from somewhere in the EU. With cigars on the other hand, can't even view what a store has online anymore in most EU countries, let alone order.
 

[SirVantes]

A box purchase of cigars is 25/50 count. A case purchase of wine is 6/12 count. Spirits are typically bought singly. That alone means there are more units of cigars to potentially age. Once you get past the casual stage, money-wise I would say typically 1 box Cuban cigars = 1 case wine = 2 bottles spirits (based on my buying habits). Again, there are more cigar units to potentially age. Of course, all that assumes some sort of median - all bets are off if you are into Habanos auction humidor releases, DRC allocations, or Karuizawa or 3 bottle Macallan releases in Lalique.  

Cigars and wine are intentionally aged. Spirits are only accidentally aged (because they don't improve with age, due respect to Serge and OBE advocates) when they are hoarded. There is much, much more literature, conventional wisdom, up-to-date punditry about the age curve of just about any wine, so punters will have an idea of peak consumption periods. You get much less help with deciding when to finish off that box of cigars. Keep that bottle of Lagavulin as long as you want.

For what it's worth, on a descending scale, I have too many: cigars, then spirits, then wine, even though I buy and keep "sensibly" all of them.

[JohnS]

It goes without saying that if your average wine and cigar buyer consumes their acquisition within one year on average, then by comparison, I definitely am not your average wine and cigar consumer.

[Puros Y Vino]

The majority of wine I buy is to be enjoyed "soon". Special bottles for momentous occasions I buy in advance. Cigars I buy with the intent to smoke "later" for the most part. And while both pursuits share a lot of similarities, I find the dynamics quite different.

A box of cigars can be opened, a cigar picked out and smoked and then socked away for a short or long while until I feel like revisiting it.

A wine bottle, once opened needs to be enjoyed sooner than later.  Sure i can buy a case of it, but to consume it, it's a bottle by bottle basis. The cigar box once closed is the same as it was when purchased. I don't have to smoke the box ASAP. I must drink the wine I just opened within at most 3 days. Sure, the other bottles can age but you won't know if it has changed until you've opened. The same goes for a cigar you smoke that you aged. In my mind, there is far more flexibility in the box of cigars than in a case of wine. 

Both hobbies have general rules on when it's best to consume a product. With wine it's hold / drink now. With cigars its' smoke in now, 2, 3, 5 years(aging #'s vary by marca). I can pull a cigar out of the box, change my mind and not smoke it and put it back. No harm no foul, unless I've left it out for a week.  But if I open a bottle of wine, I'm committed. Drink ASAP or experience diminishing returns.  

As for Spirits, it takes me years to open some bottles and to consume them. I can only drink so much. My wife isn't into much of them besides rum and tequila for certain mixed drinks. So, I might have 2 - 3 bottles opened at a time.  And I won't crack another open until I've finished off a bottle.  

As for this observation:

• Wine and spirits are depleted.
• Cigars are accumulated.

I think this is bang on and it's reflected in some of what I've said above. It's easier to go through a bottle of wine, especially if shared within your household. It's harder to go through a cigar box , even if you're  a voracious smoker, to the tune of 2 / day 365 days. I've known a few people that are 3-5/day.  I'm at 3-5 per week in the warmer months. During winter, 1/month if I'm lucky.  

My cigar tastes are very wide across many marcas and vitolas whereas my wine tastes are few, mostly due to the fact that I tend to buy bottles that both my wife and I enjoy. There really isn't' a bottle of wine in my collection that is mine only. We tend to buy the same bottles unless a recent vintage deviates too much from what we've enjoyed in the past. We also buy a new bottle now and then to sample to see if we can find another staple.  

[NYGuido]

I can’t speak to the wine/spirits because I quit drinking, but I definitely have started buying way more cigars than I can smoke soon. These things almost universally get better with a year or two in my environment and entirely universally get more expensive over time. I’ll gladly pay less upfront for a better experience in the end. 

[El Presidente]

16 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

I think this is bang on and it's reflected in some of what I've said above. It's easier to go through a bottle of wine, especially if shared within your household. It's harder to go through a cigar box , even if you're  a voracious smoker, to the tune of 2 / day 365 days. 

I think you raise an interesting point. 

"We"  generally/automatically think in boxes.  

The average punter walking into a B&M does not. He is thinking in sticks and likely to be consuming one while on premises if permitted. 

I am guessing that box buyers distort the graph because they as a rule do not finish a box of cigars before the one year mark. 

[NYGuido]

46 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I am guessing that box buyers distort the graph because they as a rule do not finish a box of cigars before the one year mark. 

Or, in the case of Cubans, may not even start smoking out of that box before holding it for a year!

[zacca]

I hoard all 3.

But in addition to @Puros Y Vino ‘s thoughts above, I’ll also throw it out there that places you can get wine and liquor are far more abundant than places you can get cigars. So there may be a feeling of, “I might as well grab some while I’m here. Never know when I’ll be back, and I want to have some on hand just in case.” 

The other thing I’d guess is in play is that many people buy in advance for special occasions - child’s birth, weddings, golf (yes, it’s a special occasion), etc. 

[TBuck]

I used to collect Bordeaux, Burgundy; and other age worthy European wines but find our regular wine consumption prefers ready to drink domestic varietals such as Zins; Chardonnay; some Pinots. As such, we are constantly consuming and replenishing everyday wines, whereas my Cuban cigar collection is now my age-worthy asset in my cellar. In fact, my cellar is now mostly home to my Cuban and Fabrica 5 cigars.

Funny thing is, I’ll invest probably 4x in cigars to wine, even though my wife and I enjoy wine together, only I consume cigars. However, I’ve probably spent untold $$ on jewelry for my wife to try and be somewhat equitable lol…

[StoagieSnape]

It is great to finally see some interesting metrics and insights into consumer and collector behavior within the premium cigar, wine, and spirits industries.

 

I have a few thoughts on the matter:

 

First, storage real estate is a significant factor. It is much easier to store larger quantities of cigars of various vitolas than it is to store wine and spirits, simply due to their size.

 

Second, discretion and ease of consumption play a major role. The footprint of consuming wine and spirits is far more discrete than that of a cigar, which creates a significant "aromatic adventure" for those nearby. Because cigar smoke requires more space and collateral consideration, we may smoke less in public settings. For example, during a recent two-week trip to Aspen, I brought a travel case of eight cigars and smoked none of them, yet I frequently enjoyed wine and whiskey with friends.

 

Finally, the psychology of preservation differs between these consumer categories. In my opinion, consumers feel much less "precious" about smoking a few cigars from a box of 25 than they do about opening bottles from a case of wine. However, because of storage limitations, the total quantity of wine and spirits one can keep is often far lower than the number of cigar boxes that can be stored in the same amount of space. What this leads to personally for me is this logic: I have enjoyed 1-5 out of a box; I now am fine to restrain myself from the remaining quantities. However, I still must satiate my desire to purchase a box or "quiver" of something new or a backup box once quantities are depleted. This is way easier to due financially and spatially with cigars than collection-worthy wine + spirits. IMO

 

Thanks Rob for bringing this topic to relevancy.