Q for El Pres pls: Crop quality ahead?

[GoodStix]

Your reviews & posts (thank you) advise that crops have been healthy in recent years, contributing to the good quality of recent production.  Pandemic has reduced production volume, coupled with increased world demand, resulting in low supply.  Understood.  You've mentioned in Chatbox that we may see improvement in 6 months (presumably volume), but not "normal" for 24-36.  Again, understood, thanks.  My question is:  How do the crops look?  Can we anticipate possibly continued good quality (not volume) for awhile still ahead?  Cheers.

...and forgive me if I've misunderstood entirely, dropped on my head as a child  🤪

[El Presidente]

Quality is the sole positive that I can see moving forward. In short there is plenty of quality leaf. 

The biggest risk for quality is the  industry brain drain that is occuring right now.  Key factory personal are leaving Cuba for greener pastures overseas. 

 

[GoodStix]

Thanks 🤞

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, GoodStix said:

How do the crops look?  Can we anticipate possibly continued good quality (not volume) for awhile still ahead? 

4 out of the last 5 harvests have been outstanding. The 21 crop was not great but 22 is shaping up to be back on track, so certainly quality leaf is not an issue or bottleneck and won't be for at least another 3 years. To have 5 of 6 crops be excellent is highly unusual so we should all consider ourselves very lucky. 

As Rob alludes to, the supply issues at this point are logistical and personnel related. Those things can be worked out. Bad leaf can't be. 

[GoodStix]

16 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

The 21 crop was not great...

Roughly what's the turnaround time from crop to box in Cuba?  If the '21 crop was not great, what box code year do you expect to see that in?

[El Presidente]

11 hours ago, GoodStix said:

Roughly what's the turnaround time from crop to box in Cuba?  If the '21 crop was not great, what box code year do you expect to see that in?

The 21 crop was fine. Yield was lower than hoped for (Covid/Fuel/Fertiliser/Early Rain). Initially there was some concern about quality after a wet start but most farmers salvaged a good to very good crop if at at a lower yield. 

 

Roughly:

12-18 months wrapper and Volado

24 Months Seco

36 months Ligero. 

[GoodStix]

Thx!  And good to hear re quality 🙂

[NSXCIGAR]

3 hours ago, GoodStix said:

If the '21 crop was not great,

Poor choice of words on my part. By not great I meant truly not "great" (excellent) but still average at least. I wasn't aware it was above average however until Rob pointed it out here, as I knew it was going to be a lower yield and there were some rain and supply troubles early on. Bravo for getting it to where they apparently did. 

Even if 21 had been below average the other 5/6 great harvests would have compensated. Leaf is mixed and matched between at least 3 harvests in every cigar made. 

[GoodStix]

Good to know.  Thx 👍

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Poor choice of words on my part. By not great I meant truly not "great" (excellent) but still average at least. I wasn't aware it was above average however until Rob pointed it out here, as I knew it was going to be a lower yield and there were some rain and supply troubles early on. Bravo for getting it to where they apparently did. 

Even if 21 had been below average the other 5/6 great harvests would have compensated. Leaf is mixed and matched between at least 3 harvests in every cigar made. 

 

The lack of visitors to the farms due to CV19 made it difficult to liaise with the normal array of growers.  We knew yield was down and the early rain didn't augur well with some replanting required. They ended up having a nice finish to the season.  If I remember correctly they harvested 15,000 hectares which was 7K less than forecast. I think Andy mentioned from his last trip that the farmers were happy with the quality.  That is good feedback in November. If you ask them in March....quality is generally always great