Cuba After the Castros: The Likely Scenario

[El Presidente]

One of the better articles.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-after-the-castros-the-likely-scenario-1434319520

[Rye]

Yeah, I'm not going to subscribe to WSJ just for a couple articles.

If anyone wants to screenshot or copy & paste, I'd love to read this!

[glassbase]

As soon as the sign on page pops up I'm out of there, they're only hurting themselves.

[Ken Gargett]

ditto

[MrGinger]

Yeah, I'm not going to subscribe to WSJ just for a couple articles.

If anyone wants to screenshot or copy & paste, I'd love to read this!

I completely agree.

[Scroats]

If you put the link into Google and click through you can read wsj articles.

Not sure if the link will work without a search first but try it out.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-after-the-castros-the-likely-scenario-1434319520&ved=0CB0QqQIwAGoVChMIjMOxppqTxgIVFT-MCh0-2wQy&usg=AFQjCNHz3IrJZbtLg1OnbxfnSuNv9GcOHw&sig2=Tr-9hu8bSBlBJgFKLUOKng

[Overproof]

If you put the link into Google and click through you can read wsj articles.

Not sure if the link will work without a search first but try it out.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-after-the-castros-the-likely-scenario-1434319520&ved=0CB0QqQIwAGoVChMIjMOxppqTxgIVFT-MCh0-2wQy&usg=AFQjCNHz3IrJZbtLg1OnbxfnSuNv9GcOHw&sig2=Tr-9hu8bSBlBJgFKLUOKng

This link prompts for you to sign in or register. But the google search with the title directs to the full text. Article below, please excuse formatting.

The 2008 succession from Fidel to Raúl Castrowas efficient and effective. But the popular hallucination outside the island—in which Gen. Castro intervenes forcefully to end the communist era and inaugurates a democratic, market-oriented Cuba—is not going to be how the story ends.

Given Raúl’s age—84—there will be another succession in the near future. The critical question is not what economic reforms Raúl may introduce, but what follows him.

José Ramón Machado Ventura,second secretary of the Communist Party, is also 84 years old and Cuba watchers do not see him as the next leader. If Miguel Díaz-Canel,55, the first vice president of Cuba, ascends to the presidency, he will most likely be a “civilian” figurehead for the generals to present to the international community.

Raúl was head of the armed forces for nearly 50 years and now, as head of the country, he has appointed his military officers and military family members to positions in government and industry. One possible scenario after he is gone would be a reversion to a military dictatorship such as Cuba under Batista, Brazil from 1964-85, or Egypt today. Yet another outcome, equally disquieting, is possible.

By some estimates, including the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces controls over 70% of the economy. Enterprise Management Group (GAESA), the commercial holding company for the Cuban Defense Ministry, is involved in all key sectors of the economy. Through government-owned subsidies, the company is heavily involved in tourism, retail sales, mining, farming and energy, and joint ventures with foreign investors.

Raúl, as a matter of survival not ideology, has introduced some tentative economic reforms, while continuing to expand the metamorphosis of his officers into businessmen. Some might present this as a positive development, where warriors exchange their weapons for calculators. But what does it mean for the future of Cuba when the Raúl era comes to an end and military officers are in political and economic control?

In a system where enterprises are state-owned and managed, the military officers-turned-business executives will enjoy the privileges of an elite ruling class. Yet it will not take long for the military elite to realize that managing government-owned enterprises offers only limited benefits—owning the enterprises is a far more lucrative option.

Once the Castro brothers are no longer in the picture, the military oligarchy might decide to champion a far-reaching but phony reform—that is, a manipulated privatization of the industries under their managerial control. Not unlike the rigged privatizations in Russia in the 1990s, an illegitimate and corrupt privatization process would give birth to a new class of government-created oligarchs—instant capitalist millionaires, the new Cuban “captains of industry.”

The Cuban population might not view these ownership changes as particularly undesirable or nefarious, mistakenly viewing them as a positive transition toward free markets and prosperity. The international community would likely also acclaim the mutated generals as agents of change bringing market reforms to Cuba. In the United States, of course, the change in U.S.-Cuba policy introduced by President Obama would be declared a success.

Cuban Communism, to be sure, would come to an end, leaving in its wake generals, new captains of industry and assorted other nouveau riche in charge of country devoid of democratic culture. And like Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s economy would be riddled with monopolies and oligopolies whose owners would have the power to stifle any pro-competitive policies or international investors that might threaten their position.

It is often argued that the introduction of economic reforms, even without political reforms, will lead sequentially and inexorably to democracy. As in the case of China after Mao, this is not necessarily, or even probably, the case.

Without profound political reforms, putative economic changes conducted by Cuba’s military will only transfer wealth from the state to a ruling military and party elite. It will not lead to democracy or prosperity.

[El Presidente]

Yeah, I'm not going to subscribe to WSJ just for a couple articles.

If anyone wants to screenshot or copy & paste, I'd love to read this!

Weird. i didn't have to sign in to anything?

Thanks for posting the article Overproof

[Rye]

Thanks Overproof, it was a good read

[DrunkenMonkey]

Yeah, this is along the lines of what I've been thinking will likely happen. But it's not nice to think about. Cubans deserve so much better! Poison begets more poison. I wonder what would have happened if Batista and the Americans hadn't seized power in the coup in 1952. Poison.

[Ken Gargett]

batista's first term was basically "earnt" by overthrowing machado, another political thug. his 2nd stint was even more brutal. it was one after another for decades.

you have to feel for the cubans. but i think more about what if the states had not rebuffed castro after he took over in 59. they had their chances. both countries would have been different. indeed, the world would be different.

i wonder if that article is really trying to make more of things than it need. always remember our mate aldaberto - we met on an early trip and caught up with him a few times. fabulous bloke and when we knew him, a minister under fidel (international trade i believe?). he had been in the cuban embassy in moscow in october 63, so had some great stories.

he made a comment one day when we were talking about life after fidel. he said he could not understand all the fuss and speculation. the west made the mistake of assuming the cuban govt was basically one man (and that article, while it talks of the military forces, pretty much does the same if one reads between the lines). his view was that if fidel fell off the perch tomorrow (and presumably raul these days), it would be sad but the govt would go on exactly as before. everyone would keep doing their jobs. i suspect that there will be far less change than expected. it will come gradually.

all that said, i think that the major changes in cuba will be 'smaller' ones but will have a much greater effect on the people. i really think that they have no idea what is coming. the influx of outside money and businesses. the locals will be thinking everything will be rosy but i suspect that down the track, there will be far more crime, far more misery and a far greater divide between rich and poor. of course, what they have now is crap and no one wants to see it continue.

but if ever a nation was between a rock and a hard place.

[bummy]

Thanks Overproof!

[wabashcr]

the west made the mistake of assuming the cuban govt was basically one man (and that article, while it talks of the military forces, pretty much does the same if one reads between the lines). his view was that if fidel fell off the perch tomorrow (and presumably raul these days), it would be sad but the govt would go on exactly as before. everyone would keep doing their jobs. i suspect that there will be far less change than expected. it will come gradually.

I think it's fair to look at the power Fidel and Raul Castro have had within the communist party in Cuba, and conclude that the government serves at the pleasure of one or two men. The Castros (with Che) led the revolution. It's conceivable their successor may not have even been alive in 1959. I don't expect the government to change overnight upon Raul's abdication, but I also don't expect another smooth transition to someone who would rule the same way. I've always felt change on the surface would be fairly swift, in the manner described in the article. But as the article mentioned, much like what's happened in the former Soviet Union, that surface change will only mask deeper institutional problems, and is likely to create new problems of its own.

I think it will be interesting to see how long Cuba's new "captains of industry" can hold off the American enterprises and investors that amount to modern-day imperialism. I'm not sure any of these options are better for the Cuban people than the status quo. Unfortunately, whoever ends up in charge isn't likely to care.

[Ken Gargett]

I think it's fair to look at the power Fidel and Raul Castro have had within the communist party in Cuba, and conclude that the government serves at the pleasure of one or two men. The Castros (with Che) led the revolution. It's conceivable their successor may not have even been alive in 1959. I don't expect the government to change overnight upon Raul's abdication, but I also don't expect another smooth transition to someone who would rule the same way. I've always felt change on the surface would be fairly swift, in the manner described in the article. But as the article mentioned, much like what's happened in the former Soviet Union, that surface change will only mask deeper institutional problems, and is likely to create new problems of its own.

I think it will be interesting to see how long Cuba's new "captains of industry" can hold off the American enterprises and investors that amount to modern-day imperialism. I'm not sure any of these options are better for the Cuban people than the status quo. Unfortunately, whoever ends up in charge isn't likely to care.

agree very much with your last para especially