Big brother’s shadow

[Jimmy2]

Cuba

Big brother’s shadow

Jul 31st 2008 | HAVANA

From The Economist

Raúl Castro preaches patience

HE TOOK over as Cuba’s acting president two years ago, and was officially confirmed in the job in February. But in some ways Raúl Castro must still govern in the shadow of his older, and ailing, brother, Fidel. If any Cubans had forgotten this, they were reminded as he took to the podium in Santiago, Cuba’s second city, on July 26th to deliver the annual speech that marks the anniversary of the official start of the country’s revolution. Raúl, a short man, was dwarfed by a vast image of Fidel, clenching his fist in salute.

In the past few months, Raúl has introduced a series of small but significant changes. He has dropped some of the petty restrictions that irritate Cubans. If they can afford it, they are now free to buy DVD players, stay in tourist hotels and use mobile phones. More significantly, private farmers can buy their own supplies and equipment, and cultivate more of the vast tracts of idle state-owned land. Even the egalitarian dream under which heart surgeons were paid barely twice as much as street cleaners is being ended, with the introduction of performance-related pay.

These steps signal that consumerism is no longer officially frowned upon, and that Raúl Castro recognises that private initiative is essential to reduce his country’s dependence on imports and eventually to allow Cubans’ derisory wages to rise. The mini-reforms have been popular, and Cubans expect more. Officials have hinted that the right to buy cars, to travel, and even to buy and sell property is being considered behind the scenes. There are signs, too, that they are discussing a bigger role for private enterprise beyond farming.

But Raúl had no such announcements to make in Santiago. Instead, his subdued audience of 10,000 were told in some detail of government investment in roads and in addressing the city’s appalling water shortage. Austerity, not market reform, was the message. “As much as we desire to solve every problem, we cannot spend more than what we have,” Mr Castro said. He cited rising oil prices (though the island receives more than half its oil from Venezuela at a concessional price). The government had already said that rising food prices would cost the country an extra $1 billion this year.

So has the reformist drive halted having barely started? There are hints of intensifying debate, if not infighting, within the regime. Mr Castro noted that public discussion on raising the retirement age should not be open-ended. “We do not aspire to unanimity, which is usually fictitious,” he said. That contrasts with Fidel’s oft-repeated insistence on “unity”.

Some foreign investors are betting that Cuba is heading on an increasingly capitalist route. A European fund which invests in Cuba found its share placing last March 70% oversubscribed. A London-based consortium has announced that it is going ahead with plans to build a €350m ($545m) country club and golf resort overlooking the Florida Straits, complete with luxury villas for sale to foreigners.

But change is likely to remain slow at least until the end of next year, when the Communist Party holds its long-overdue sixth congress. Mr Castro has said that the congress will set the country’s “economic and political directives”. Until then, Cubans will need yet more patience.