predictions for 08?

[aavkk]

It seems widely agreed upon that 06 and 07 were the best two years since the late 90's for CC's. It is my understanding that tobacco used in cigars being produced today was harvested 2-3 yrs ago. Is there any indication such as climate (from 05-06), supply, and general quality control that would lead you to believe that this great period of smokes will not continue or get better even? It just seems to me that aside from the actual construction of the cigars we should be able to predict to a somewhat accurate level the quality of smokes a year or two out. Obviously there are dozens of variables but none more important that the quality of the tobacco itself. Just some thoughts.

[El Presidente]

» It seems widely agreed upon that 06 and 07 were the best two years since

» the late 90's for CC's. It is my understanding that tobacco used in

» cigars being produced today was harvested 2-3 yrs ago. Is there any

» indication such as climate (from 05-06), supply, and general quality

» control that would lead you to believe that this great period of smokes

» will not continue or get better even? It just seems to me that aside from

» the actual construction of the cigars we should be able to predict to a

» somewhat accurate level the quality of smokes a year or two out.

» Obviously there are dozens of variables but none more important that the

» quality of the tobacco itself. Just some thoughts.

Construction will undoubtedly continue to improve...as it should given there is still a long way to go. Partagas closes this year and will move into the R&J Factory while the Partagas factory is renovated. The quality control out of Partagas has been very disappointing over the past few years. Upmann is the benchmark factory and if both R&J and Partagas come back online to that (Upmann) standard then overall quality of cigars being exported will improve dramatically.

Ascertaining the year to year quality of crops is a little more difficult. Everyone is very tight lipped in the industry and most of the evidence you receive is from vegueros and HSA insiders. I think it is difficult to gain a definitive idea of what is happening with a "total crop" given the area it cultivated in is quite large. Those that actually do know (TABACUBA) would not be talking to anybody.

Still.

2005/6/7 were pretty good years. A little "pata negra" in 2007 but not overly widespread as thought.

2008 a little more challenging given the late start to the season due to hurricanes and rain. I have not heard how the crop ended up but will endeavor to find out.

[CIGARHead]

» Ascertaining the year to year quality of crops is a little more difficult.

» Everyone is very tight lipped in the industry and most of the evidence you

» receive is from vegueros and HSA insiders. I think it is difficult to gain

» a definitive idea of what is happening with a "total crop" given the area

» it cultivated in is quite large. Those that actually do know (TABACUBA)

» would not be talking to anybody.

»

» Still.

»

» 2005/6/7 were pretty good years. A little "pata negra" in 2007 but not

» overly widespread as thought.

» 2008 a little more challenging given the late start to the season due to

» hurricanes and rain. I have not heard how the crop ended up but will

» endeavor to find out.

I can attest to this comment. Being in agriculture, we can see varying crops from field to field...even row to row...and on down to plant to plant within the same row. Mother nature can do some strange things. Disease can strike one plant or acres worth. It is very hard to say what the quality of a crop will be into next week let alone a few years down the road.

[El Presidente]

Spot on Austin.

Also, in the past a great crop was based on overall size of crop (yield) and size/yield of wrapper leaf.

TABACUBA may be "ecstatic" about the 2008 crop but it may not be "great" tobacco.

Just an example.

[CIGARHead]

» Spot on Austin.

»

» Also, in the past a great crop was based on overall size of crop (yield)

» and size/yield of wrapper leaf.

»

» TABACUBA may be "ecstatic" about the 2008 crop but it may not be "great"

» tobacco.

»

» Just an example.

That is correct Rob...(want a job?:-D ).To parallel tobacco with the crop we grow (potatoes), we can have a stellar yield, but cut 100 lbs of potatoes and look at the inside. We strive for no defects obviously, but the reality is 5-7% are defects...caused by disease, insects etc.

This can be worsened when you have a stellar yield, but were hit hard with disease or big rains and damn near 80% are defects when sliced....not a good scene, trust me!

[asc]

» Construction will undoubtedly continue to improve...as it should given

» there is still a long way to go. Partagas closes this year and will move

» into the R&J Factory while the Partagas factory is renovated.

However, partagas will be back after their factory is renovated. Correct? please.

[aavkk]

wow, some great info. thanks guys. It just never crossed my mind that a high yield wouldn't necessarily produce an overall great crop.

[smokum]

» However, partagas will be back after their factory is renovated. Correct?

» please.

They are made in other factories right now anyway...just as others are made in Partagas factory. Correct me if I'm wrong gentlemen.

[El Presidente]

» » However, partagas will be back after their factory is renovated.

» Correct?

» » please.

»

» They are made in other factories right now anyway...just as others are

» made in Partagas factory. Correct me if I'm wrong gentlemen.

you are correct and Partagas will move back in once the factory is renovated :-)

[asc]

Excellent.

Thank you gentlemen.