Change is still not on the agenda in Castro\'s \'new\' Cuba

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Change is still not on the agenda in Castro's 'new' Cuba

Experts critical of Raul's old guard communists

Peter Goodspeed, National Post

Published: Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Cubans hopeful Raul Castro's "pragmatism is going to pay benefits"

Fidel Castro says change U.S. policy not Cuba

While Raul Castro was selected Sunday to succeed his older brother and become Cuba's first new leader in 50 years, he has surrounded himself with hardline communists and made it clear he will consult his brother on virtually every important decision.

"The actions and statements of Raul Castro indicate a determination to stay the course and prevent any major political changes," predicts Jamie Suchlicki, director of the institute.

"There may perhaps be some small economic changes," he adds. "Raul has emphasized discipline. He emphasized more productivity and he talked about minor economic changes. I expect that he will open up in rural areas to more privatization in the agricultural area. He may open up to foreign investment, particularly in offshore petroleum, and in a limited way in the tourism industry.

"But we don't see at this point any move towards a market economy and certainly no moves towards any major political changes."

In the short term, Mr. Suchlicki predicts Mr. Castro's new government will try to buy food and consumer goods in bulk on international markets to try to improve the standard of living for ordinary Cubans.

"A satisfaction of the Cuban people's need for cheaper food and more consumer goods could lead to what the regime feels is an acceptance that Raul is now delivering," he said.

In the long run, Cuba's new leadership will seek to preserve the past.

"It is very important to note that there was no rejuvenation of the top leadership in Cuba," says Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst who wrote a 2002 book about Raul Castro called After Fidel.

"The average age of Raul Castro and the six vice-presidents is a little more than 70 years old," he said. "This is a gerontocracy. These are old men. These are old men dealing with the possibility of an upheaval and instability amongst a younger generation ."

Raul Castro appointed 77-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, an old friend and socialist hardliner , as his first vice-president and designated successor.

The appointment is said to underscore Mr. Castro's desire to be surrounded by people he has known for years.

It could also signal his dedication to cling to socialism despite cries for reform at home and abroad.

But by opening the debate, he may also have raised expectations of change, which now seem frustrated by his surrounding himself with old-guard communist leaders.

"The reaction in Cuba is that this is not very good news," said Andy Gomez, an international affairs specialist and assistant provost of the University of Miami. "Cuban society wants change. Not just political change but they want their living conditions improved ."

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» Change is still not on the agenda in Castro's 'new' Cuba

» Experts critical of Raul's old guard communists

»

» Peter Goodspeed, National Post

» Published: Wednesday, February 27, 2008

»

»

» Cubans hopeful Raul Castro's "pragmatism is going to pay benefits"

»

» Fidel Castro says change U.S. policy not Cuba

»

»

» While Raul Castro was selected Sunday to succeed his older brother and

» become Cuba's first new leader in 50 years, he has surrounded himself with

» hardline communists and made it clear he will consult his brother on

» virtually every important decision.

»

» "The actions and statements of Raul Castro indicate a determination to

» stay the course and prevent any major political changes," predicts Jamie

» Suchlicki, director of the institute.

»

» "There may perhaps be some small economic changes," he adds. "Raul has

» emphasized discipline. He emphasized more productivity and he talked about

» minor economic changes. I expect that he will open up in rural areas to

» more privatization in the agricultural area. He may open up to foreign

» investment, particularly in offshore petroleum, and in a limited way in

» the tourism industry.

»

» "But we don't see at this point any move towards a market economy and

» certainly no moves towards any major political changes."

»

» In the short term, Mr. Suchlicki predicts Mr. Castro's new government will

» try to buy food and consumer goods in bulk on international markets to try

» to improve the standard of living for ordinary Cubans.

»

» "A satisfaction of the Cuban people's need for cheaper food and more

» consumer goods could lead to what the regime feels is an acceptance that

» Raul is now delivering," he said.

»

» In the long run, Cuba's new leadership will seek to preserve the past.

»

» "It is very important to note that there was no rejuvenation of the top

» leadership in Cuba," says Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst who wrote a

» 2002 book about Raul Castro called After Fidel.

»

» "The average age of Raul Castro and the six vice-presidents is a little

» more than 70 years old," he said. "This is a gerontocracy. These are old

» men. These are old men dealing with the possibility of an upheaval and

» instability amongst a younger generation ."

»

» Raul Castro appointed 77-year-old Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, an old

» friend and socialist hardliner , as his first vice-president and

» designated successor.

»

» The appointment is said to underscore Mr. Castro's desire to be surrounded

» by people he has known for years.

»

» It could also signal his dedication to cling to socialism despite cries

» for reform at home and abroad.

»

» But by opening the debate, he may also have raised expectations of change,

» which now seem frustrated by his surrounding himself with old-guard

» communist leaders.

»

» "The reaction in Cuba is that this is not very good news," said Andy

» Gomez, an international affairs specialist and assistant provost of the

» University of Miami. "Cuban society wants change. Not just political

» change but they want their living conditions improved ."

What about the USA, have they changed? Are they now open to help the citizens of Cuba?