Cigar Futures...thoughts?

[aavkk]

Ok, I thought of this a few days ago and I would like to see if anyone else (ROB AND LISA) feel this may have some value. It works well for wine and I thought it would be a great idea for either the EL's or RE's? Thoughts??? Of course Rob if you are on board I would have to hold you to a hand picked box of 2008 Por Larranaga Belicosos.

[Don Candido]

» Ok, I thought of this a few days ago and I would like to see if anyone else

» (ROB AND LISA) feel this may have some value. It works well for wine and I

» thought it would be a great idea for either the EL's or RE's? Thoughts???

» Of course Rob if you are on board I would have to hold you to a hand picked

» box of 2008 Por Larranaga Belicosos.

Having been an avid wine collector of collectable wines in the past, I would welcome a change like this.

It would require a change in the way habanos does business, but I believe this sort of thing is in the direct future of Habanos collectors....

[greenpimp]

All I think of when I hear this is how much more cigars will cost me. Non-smoking investors buying cigars I want. Aaahhhh!!

[Don Candido]

» All I think of when I hear this is how much more cigars will cost me.

» Non-smoking investors buying cigars I want. Aaahhhh!!

I like to think of futures, as an avid collector, as a way I will have access to releases, before the general public, who is perhaps not as on top of releases as they become available....

Futures always have some level of the unknown, but that is part of the fun for me...

[tigger]

Are we talking distributors (PCC for instance)/vendors (Czar, for instance) doing this, or HSA?

I can see doing it on a limited basis, but not if it's run by HSA...

[jqmunro]

Unfortunately I think production and timing for Habanos products is so inconsistent it would never work.

[Colt45]

My cigars' futures are bleak - they are all doomed to incineration.....

But back to the topic at hand. Looking at it from the wine perspective, we'd be buying into the following

season's crop. In that scenario, we'd not see cigars for a few years, and in the case of ELs and REs, we'd

have to be willing to accept releases blindly.

The above is, obviously, just one scenario.

[aavkk]

Similar to wine this would absolutely be a bit of a gamble, but with some risk comes some reward. I was originally thinking of this on a vendor level, something Rob would do to leverage some risk of a bad crop or just a bad blend on some RE's or LE's (or hell with success on this level regular production). For us the consumer it would be an opportunity to get some potentially great cigars at a great price. Additionally it would be fun way to become more involved in how the crop is developing and eventually smoking.

[Colt45]

» Similar to wine this would absolutely be a bit of a gamble, but with some

» risk comes some reward.

Let me clarify that when I say "accept releases blindly", I'm referring to what REs HSA may decide to create. We

could end up with a beautiful box of Cuaba Elephantos, the wonderful 9" x 64 ring gem destined for greatness.

Using the wine analogy once more, usually (but of course not always), when buying wine en primeur

we are buying from top houses, with histories of certain levels of quality.

If I buy futures of Pichon Lalande, I feel the only real gamble I'm taking is with the quality of the season's crop.

I'm quite comfortable with the house making the best possible wine with the ingredients they have

at hand.

So in my head I'm trying to apply this to the Havana cigar, but I can't quite come to grips.....

HSA and TABACUBA control all the legitimate Habanos made in Cuba. What is their history of quality?

Do I judge whether or not I want to buy futures on the tasty but poor draw plagued '00 RA 898V,

the all around terrific '03 Bolivar CG, the underfilled piss poor '05 RAASS, the great '06 PSdC No.3,

etc, etc?

For my money, it's too much of a gamble right now.

P.S. FOH members getting together with Rob to subsidize an FOH only release of, let's say

Bolivar Carlotas, is another story.

[Claudius]

Not too keen on the idea. Remember the last person who tried it (Christoph Wolters) went bankrupt. I doubt Rob is up for it, anyway.

[greenpimp]

» P.S. FOH members getting together with Rob to subsidize an FOH only

» release of, let's say

» Bolivar Carlotas, is another story.

See this is what I'm talking about. If i'm gonna pre-buy 6-12 boxes of something, untasted and untested, then I would want it to be through someone like Rob. There's just too much inconsistency and chaos in the overall industry, IMO.

Now I admit that it would be kind of cool to be able to get a deal on a chunk of something I would want and was going to buy, anyway. But I do have an objection with this becoming even more of a resellers market, as well as my concerns of ever-spiraling costs, where a smaller and smaller pool of people can afford or has access to "the good stuff." I recognize it is already becoming more and more that way, but I like to smoke cigars. Collect them, yes. But collect them to share and one day smoke. I just would hate to see the day when Cuban Cigars are bought and resold by people that don't even smoke, purely as investments. Perhaps that day has already arrived.

And my vote is for a Bolivar Petite Lancero, although I would smoke the hell out of some Carlotas. :-D

[Colt45]

» See this is what I'm talking about. If i'm gonna pre-buy 6-12 boxes of

» something, untasted and untested, then I would want it to be through

» someone like Rob. There's just too much inconsistency and chaos in the

» overall industry, IMO.

Agreed. I seem to recall Rob mentioning that if he were to do something along these lines, that he'd

have to have quite a bit of control over the operation. But again, I imagine that if he were to undertake

such a project, it would take a strong ($$ up front) commitment from the membership, to at least meet

a minimum order requirement.

I understand your point about prices rising due to speculators, but in the above scenario, I'd think/hope

that prices for initial "investors" would be lower.

[56Tweed]

Like the others have mentioned I think it would be a challenge because of the inconsistencies. I think there is much more information about the crops and harvests with respect to wines. Also there isn't as much tinkering with the grape species.

At this point I've very cautious about when I stock up on cigars and it tends to happen after I know what the stock is like. I think we have been blessed with good tobacco and rollers these past 2-3 years. Who knows when that luck will run out.

Mike

[aavkk]

I guess I am lucky to have really jumped into this hobby a little over 8 months ago. It is clear that I have a false sense of consistency about habanos, even though I have read about 00, 01, and even 02 cigars lack of consistency. Just about everything i have smoked has been good to great. I can understand the skepticism, you guys who have been through the post cigar boom drought of quality tobacco. Thanks for the feedback, it has been nagging at me the last few days what some of your thoughts would be. I would like to hear Rob's point of view on this, not that I presume it will be much different from yours Colt. Cheers.