Winners of the 2016 FOH Blind Tasting Competition

[Jeremy Festa]

5 hours ago, zeedubbya said:

Well now it's time for my big reveal.  I actually could've gotten all of them right but just to make it interesting I decided to go for an 0-5.  At the beginning of the competition I determined, based off of available Vitolas that the odds gettting 0-5 was actually around 600-1.  Even by complete random guess it's extremely hard to not to get at least one correct just by sheer luck.  So I challenged myself to not get any right, and I did it!   Victory is mine.   

Seriously an incredible job to both winners, 3/5 is amazing!  Absolutely incredible even if just guessing.  A very humbling eye opening experience.  The last one was a real head scratcher to me.  Congrats to the winners--look forward to next year!  

 

5 hours ago, Fugu said:

One can only do so if one actually knows and identifies all five cigars beforehand with absolute certainty... So, congrats mate!

Woah woah woah, guys. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Even if just guessing. 

I think the chance of getting them all wrong is about 35%. 

And getting them all right, just by guessing is about 0.019%. Or 1 in 5000 chance. 

Difference between probability and odds is confusing. 

Admitting that we all have an educated guess in this comp.

I call this field of blind tasting cigars or whisky and the like.... "prossibility."

 

 

[Fugu]

Just kidding, Jerocco, got it?! ()

Apart from that, the probability calculation will have to take into account the number of different options for each vitola (given everybody identified that correct) or the number of all similar vitolas (assuming all had some/the same clue [Robusto/Hermoso 4?, DC/Jul. 2?, Camp./Pyram. etc.]). Or all possible cigars of the HSA vitolario (assuming nobody had any clue....).

So, it is nearly impossible to do that calculation right. (Just for the sake of wise-assing some serious note here... )

[Jeremy Festa]

LOLz

No, I calculated for each vitola as 7, 4, 5, 6 & 6. 

I considered the prossibility of everyone not knowing the vitola as the same outlier chance of everyone except that one freak of nature getting the one from one chance with the Du Prince as an Almuerzos that one time Rob put it in and everyone thinking it was a Petit Corona or something. I think.

 

[Fugu]

8 hours ago, Jerocco said:

except that one freak of nature getting the one from one chance with the Du Prince as an Almuerzos that one time Rob put it in and everyone thinking it was a Petit Corona or something. I think.

Haha, good one !

[GavLew79]

Ha ha. I've just seen the box code for the VR Don Alejandro...

I've got a frickin box of these and smoked two around the time of the blind one! To me it tasted nothing like those!

I reconcile myself with 'oh it's the variability of cigars' whereas in reality I could just be shit at it. 

[PatrickEwing]

A pursuit is only interesting when you realize how very little you actually know. And it's clear I know very little! Looking forward to next year. 

[Yagermeister]

Great job to the two winners. I'm just happy I got 1 out of 5 this year. Next year I'll shoot for 2 out of 5 and maybe in 4 years I'll win one of these!