Leaked Cuba Memo to Raise Eyebrows

[El Presidente]

Leaked Cuba Memo to Raise Eyebrows

By SAUL LANDAU and NELSON P. VALDES

http://www.counterpunch.org/landau12032010.html

A recently retired military intelligence officer submitted a memo [see below] to his former commander (Southcom) -- copies to other appropriate agencies. Obama Administration officials ignored it. “Cuba is not on our agenda,” one said. One official surreptitiously mailed us a copy, which we share.

The Cuban government has announced it will lay off 500,000 “superfluous” state workers. Our sources predict at least another 500,000 will get pink-slipped before the end of 2011.

Such news should ring alarm bells in Florida and Washington. Havana could encourage – without formally acknowledging it to its newly unemployed population – a migration northward rather than face possible unrest on the island. If the Cuban government tried to stop migration, we do not think Cuba’s police or military would fire on the population, even if their commanders ordered it.

This hypothetical scenario could force our President into a situation where he had little choice but to order military intervention - not a welcome event at this precarious time.

One preemptive scenario suggests Washington renew the previous Administration’s warning: discourage Cuban attempts to release their “excess” populations northward by threatening a US Navy seizure of some Cuban territory on which it would relocate the sea-bound migrants. Mixing any Cuban balseros with the inmates at Guantanamo could spark an international crisis of monumental proportion.

Our intelligence group devised these scenarios in response to the current Administration’s denial or lack of planning. In the absence of solid assessment, I share some analysis done by our intel group on “recent changes in Cuba,” which should have come from the US Interest Section in Havana. Instead of submitting useful information or analysis of events our mission in Cuba, under instructions from State, has cultivated and support “dissidents”; including some state security moles and repeats publicly mindless slogans like Cuba should allow citizens unrestricted rights to travel (We have informed Havana not to take this literally – or else). Indeed, if Havana complied, a massive migration might ensue. The impact? Officially, south Florida reports a 12.8% (September 2010) rate of unemployment; unofficially the rate is higher. Imagine 500,000 Cubans arriving on leaky boats, vying for scarce jobs and scant area welfare resources. Possible riots and unrest could erupt, with negative impact on tourism and outside investors. Difficult to calculate the inherent political difficulties such disturbances would cause.

Considering the Administration’s virtually unchanged policies toward the island (from the Bush Administration, except for allowing Cuban-Americans unlimited visiting rights), two possible sequences of events emerge: massive migration to south Florida would compel the Administration to distribute new “marielitos” elsewhere; few states will willingly accept large numbers of Cubans given the depressed employment situation; the other scenario foresees upheaval in the island.

If instability arises, as former Secretary of State Colin Powell envisaged as possible, from south Florida armed exiles with impressive amounts of weapons might attempt to launch commando/sabotage attacks; even small invasions. Washington would find such a situation unacceptable. Indeed, illegal movement of Cubans in either direction through the Straits of Florida poses and ought to be assessed as security threats.

The embargo, imposed 50 years ago by President Eisenhower, has damaged the island, albeit fallen short of causing regime change. A previous report noted, “Since the breakup of the former Soviet Union, the political system and economic infrastructure of Cuba have significantly deteriorated, a situation that will only further increase in seriousness and import for the United States in the remaining years of this century.” (Gen. John J. Sheehan, USMC, commander in chief, U.S. Atlantic Command, Senate Armed Services Committee, February 14, 1995.)

The shortages and ensuing economic breakdowns have eroded the Cuban national psyche. Decades of absence of important material goods and services has caused biological and psychological deprivation, shared feelings of impotence and even depression.

Cuban leaders manage an economy without access to key external inputs and financial resources. They must also deal with a shortage/corruption cycle, which further undermines morale.

After the USSR collapsed and Cuba lost its beneficent trading partners, the embargo’s impact swelled. Some analysts predicted regime change. But Castro had exported his enemies – or we had imported them.

Cuba does not constitute a military threat, but the possibility of mass migration and civil strife demand creative and constructive engagement. Unfortunately, policy-makers have responded by worsening making Cuba’s economic condition -- severing Havana’s banking ties with banks even remotely connected to US banks. As of March 31, 2012 Cuban banks will lose access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication because SWIFT contains embargoed US technologies.

Policy recommendations: lift restrictions on Americans traveling to Cuba; expand cultural, social, and economic exchanges. These stabilizing measures would increase Cuban income and provide for jobs. Press for US aid to individually owned farms or coops as signs of US support for Cuba’s privatizing reforms -- moves turning Cuba away from socialism.

This strategy would relieve destabilizing tensions and promote regional security. Acting boldly might preempt the parade of horrors outlined above and allow our attention to focus on Caribbean basin difficulties (hurricanes, earthquakes, cholera, narcotics trafficking and criminal volatility).

Collaboration and cooperation with Cuba would contribute to regional stability. China has announced it will invest $6 billion in Cuba’s oil refinery. Time is of the essence.

[MontrealRon]

Imagine. A military intelligence officer with such obvious intelligence.

Unfortunately, this excellent report will probably get mislaid or sidetracked by his superiors.

[gammon]

The people who work in the Oil refineries make $250 CUC a month...

Nice job and pay in CUBA.

[Colt45]

Policy recommendations: lift restrictions on Americans traveling to Cuba; expand cultural, social, and economic exchanges. These stabilizing measures would increase Cuban income and provide for jobs. Press for US aid to individually owned farms or coops as signs of US support for Cuba’s privatizing reforms -- moves turning Cuba away from socialism.

No question the embargo should have ended long, long ago. Just as bad, if not worse are the governments who chose, and continue to choose, dollars

over doing the right thing.

Step up to the plate world.....

[El Presidente]

Step up to the plate world.....

We have! We treat them no different to China, laos or Vietnam.

The only communist county we alienate is North Korea and that is largely due to international treaty and the fact that the leadership are loony

Oz has been to war with 3 of the 5 remaining communist countries but excluding NK have excellent relationships with each. We apparently are close to opening up a consulate in Havana (all about mining companies BHP/RioTinto).

China, laos and Vietnam all introduced market reforms in the 80's. Cuba relied on Russia and paid the price with its collapse.

The Embargo makes sense in one aspect only and that is political expediency.

No other country has this problem (needs to win Florida votes) and hence can make policy along the same lines as Vietnam/China/Laos.

if Cuban expats/refugees went to Canada post revolution there would be no US embargo today. This is not a Moral issue (although often dressed up as one) but it doesn't stand up to accusations of hypocrisy (china/vietnam/laos/Saudi's exporting terrorists). It is a political issue.

Just my opinion.

[ChanceSchmerr]

if Cuban expats/refugees went to Canada post revolution there would be no US embargo today.

Probably true, but it's a long swim to Canada.......

[compitaveggie]

if Cuban expats/refugees went to Canada post revolution there would be no US embargo today. This is not a Moral issue (although often dressed up as one) but it doesn't stand up to accusations of hypocrisy (china/vietnam/laos/Saudi's exporting terrorists). It is a political issue.

agree 100%

Jose

[Colt45]

if Cuban expats/refugees went to Canada post revolution there would be no US embargo today.

Exactly. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Canada, European countries - pick a government - could've chosen to say screw the embargo and

offer their unconditional help and support. But they didn't - they chose, and continue to choose $$$$

[El Presidente]

Exactly. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Canada, European countries - pick a government - could've chosen to say screw the embargo and

offer their unconditional help and support. But they didn't - they chose, and continue to choose $$$$

Colt in the main they do.

Australia/Canada etc all provide funding for various programs.

European programs are/were based on contra in the main (rum/sugar/Nickel). Venezuela provides oil for nurses and doctors.

The GFC meant a lot of the programs have been scaled back (smaller countries need cash not contra).

The Embargo bans any US citizen taking a share/equity/trading position in a company dealing with Cuba. This remarkably includes International/Foreign countries. Reversed, it means international companies have a choice between dealing with the US (dropping but still 1 in 4 of every dollar spent in the world) or Cuba....a minnow. checkmate.

It is very much a global embargo by design and will of one party.

You are right, the world should just say to the US, get rooted, we will trade with whom and where we want and if you don't like it 15% tarriff applies globally to US export goods.

Cuba isn't worth the fight. Such an action is being discussed in relation to currency manipulation in a 3 way mexican standoff of Europe - china- US.

It is always Politics. Cuba is merely a sideshow. I have no idea why they don't announce a Nuclear reactor to be built to solve their energy shortfall. There would be discussions set up quick smart with European/south American backing (energy self determination). North Korea uses it every time it feels it is being ignored.

[CanuckSARTech]

Exactly. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Canada, European countries - pick a government - could've chosen to say screw the embargo and

offer their unconditional help and support. But they didn't - they chose, and continue to choose $$$$

A lot of our businesses do, as do others across the world.

You should see Cuba in the last few years - lots of downfalls, yes, but brand new tour buses out of China, and lots of LG air conditioners and TV's throughout the country.

Many companies just say eff-you to the embargo. There's nothing about the embargo that's enforceable in any other countries besides the U.S. It's all about, if you choose to do business with Cuba, and you want to also do business in the U.S., then we're going to make you pay a gazillion-percent in duties and levies. Well, there's lots of companies out there that don't do business at all with the U.S., so they're good as gold.

All that said, things definitely aren't pink and rosy in Cuba. There's a lot of downfalls due to the embargo and the lack of open and fair trade with the U.S.

But a few notable countries (Canada, Australia, Germany I think) have done a lot of investment and business in and with Cuba, although much more could and should be done.

[El Presidente]

by the way it goes without saying that the number one reason Cuba is where it is .....is Cuba/Castro.

The greatest political asset Castro has = Embargo. The perfect fall guy.

The Embargo's greatest US strength = Proven 50 year Florida vote puller.

End result it has worked for both political sides and the reason it has existed so long.

Only the people are screwed

[Colt45]

.....Proven 50 year Florida vote puller.

I meant to comment on this aspect in my previous post. I've expressed my thoughts elswhere that as long as politicians are mainly concerned

with getting and staying elected, swaying like palms in a breeze, this is how it will always be.

It's world wide, slip and slide, can't change the tide, hang on for the ride.

[asmith]

The term "500,000 “superfluous” state workers" sounds like it has come from the mouth of President Ken.

What ever happened to President Ken?

[CanuckSARTech]

by the way it goes without saying that the number one reason Cuba is where it is .....is Cuba/Castro.

The greatest political asset Castro has = Embargo. The perfect fall guy.

The Embargo's greatest US strength = Proven 50 year Florida vote puller.

End result it has worked for both political sides and the reason it has existed so long.

Only the people are screwed

I meant to comment on this aspect in my previous post. I've expressed my thoughts elswhere that as long as politicians are mainly concerned

with getting and staying elected, swaying like palms in a breeze, this is how it will always be.

It's world wide, slip and slide, can't change the tide, hang on for the ride.

Oh gawd, both so very very true...unfortunately for the regular citizens on both sides of the divide.