Cuba policy under Obama predicted to be more open

[Jimmy2]

Once in office, President-elect Barack Obama is likely to do more on Cuba policy than lifting the travel ban on Cubans visiting the island, experts say.

BY LIZA GROSS

President-elect Barack Obama plans to score a few ''easy wins'' on Cuba after he takes office, moving further on Cuba issues than he promised during the campaign, say Cuba observers.

Obama committed during the campaign to allow Cuban Americans to send remittances without restrictions and to travel to the island as often as they like to visit relatives.

His transition team declined to elaborate on Cuba strategy, saying Obama has already addressed it.

But a senior Republican aide in Washington, who recently returned from Cuba, said there are some areas where Obama may go beyond his campaign pledges.

The Obama administration will have a much more relaxed approach to issuing visas to non-Cubans, making travel easier in both directions for academics, artists, scientists and students, said the aide, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak on the record.

He added there will probably be some changes in the regulations on agricultural sales to facilitate payment for merchandise, and that, in general, the new administration will convey the message of more openness in exchanges and discussions with Havana and Latin America.

''Most likely there will not be an end to the embargo,'' the aide said. ``But very likely there will be more than what was articulated.''

Peter Hakim, president of the Washington-based Inter American Dialogue, said Obama will focus on ''easy wins'' to test the waters.

''He will do a few things he can't avoid, like rolling back restrictions. This is the easiest, doesn't cost him and has projection,'' Hakim said.

PRESSURE TO DO MORE

''I don't think he is going to stop there. Once he's done that, there's going to be pressure'' for more action, he added.

Initial steps could include statements on jailed Cuban dissidents, allowing exchanges like ''letting Little League baseball teams play in Cuba'' and staying out of the way of any Cuba-related initiatives from international organizations like the Inter American Development Bank or the Organization of American States, Hakim said.

After that, he added, ``Cuba reaction and Miami reaction will shape how the next steps go.''

Under a Bush administration policy, Cuban Americans can now send up to $300 in cash every three months and are allowed to visit the island once every three years, although they can send gift packages of food, medicine and other items. Bush also tightened the restrictions on visits by academics, students and religious groups. In addition, Americans with no family in Cuba generally cannot visit the island, and it's unclear whether the announced easing of travel restrictions will apply to them.

Beyond these reversals, Obama has said little on other aspects of relations with Cuba.

In a speech in Miami in May 2008, he said he would maintain the 47-year-old embargo because it provides the United States with the leverage to force Cuba ''to take significant steps towards democracy,'' although as senator he took a different position.

But elected officials and Cuban exile leaders do not see the Obama administration engaging in dramatic changes, while in South Florida some Cuban Americans anxiously hope for significantly closer relations between the two countries.

''The only thing he will do is what he said he will do: change the policy back to what it was before the restrictions placed by the Bush administration,'' said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. ``Any other policy change, we'll have to wait and see. If anything.''

U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros Lehtinen, R-Miami, agreed.

''President Obama will rapidly put into place the regulations regarding Cuban travel to the island,'' she said. ``He will change a few of the recent restrictions. In the near future, I don't foresee major changes.''

Dr. Susan Purcell, director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami, predicts policy continuity under Obama.

''It looks like Obama is going to adopt some Bush policies. They made it clear the embargo will stay,'' she said. ``They are not abandoning setting pre-conditions to the lifting of the embargo.''

Still, she cautions that Fidel Castro's health will severely impact the evolution of any Cuba policy.

Exile Cuban leader Ernesto Díaz of Alpha 66 said Obama must continue Bush's current stand on Cuba because it's ``the logical course.''

''I don't expect major changes. Obama will act as is logical, in line with U.S. interests, and the government of Cuba is not interested in resolving differences with the government of the United States,'' he said.

The complexity of the Cuba issue and the current domestic and foreign crises are likely to push the U.S. Cuba policy lower down on an Obama agenda, experts said.

`COMPLICATED ISSUE'

''Nothing beyond travel and remittances will happen in the first two years of the administration,'' Guarioné Diaz, president of the Miami-based Cuban National Council, said.

``I hope that he is aware that Cuba is a complicated issue, so he will have to get a feel for what his options are.''

Ten U.S. presidents have tried and failed to tackle the issue of the embargo, and Obama may be reluctant to engage in what can fast become a political quagmire, Cuba watchers said.

''I hope President-elect Barack Obama keeps his word not to grant any further unilateral concessions to the dictatorship,'' said Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami. ``I cannot predict his future actions, but in Congress the cause of a democratic Cuba enjoys significant bipartisan strength.''

[Don Candido]

Thanks Jimmy. You find all the news worth printing here!

Although I would love to see the embargo go away, what the article says Obama plans to do, is about all he can do politically, without serious repercussions. The lifting of the embargo could and likely should be one ultimate result of his initial actions on Cuba, but he will be smart about it. If the initial changes appear positive to not only most americans, but to Cuban dissidents, it will be much easier to lift it.

Speaking of dissidents, the one line in the article which did not ring true for me was the quote from Ernesto Diaz - "Obama must continue Bush's current stand on Cuba because it's ``the logical course.''" All I really can see or hear when I read that line is Bush talking about staying the course in Iraq. But instead of a ridiculous policy of the last five + years, we are talking about a ridiculous policy of the last fifty years. If it worked, Fidel would have been out of power long before his natural health started dictating it.