\'Good cop\' and \'bad cop\' will tussle for power

[Jimmy2]

'Good cop' and 'bad cop' will tussle for power

By Tim Shipman in Washington

Last Updated: 2:15am GMT 23/12/2007

Fidel Castro's successor could be one of two younger officials, dubbed "good cop" and "bad cop" by US intelligence analysts.

The Cuban dictator, 81, said in a letter read out on state television last week that he had a duty not to hold on to power nor to obstruct the rise of the "younger generation".

It was the first time he had conceded that he might never return to power after he was taken ill with intestinal bleeding last year.

Since then, his brother Raul, 76, has been in command of the Caribbean island.

American spy chiefs have now begun to rethink their previous assumption that Cuban communism will collapse after Castro's death, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt.

Instead, they expect the future of the nation to be decided by a power struggle between two younger men.

The "good cop" is Carlos Lage Davila, 56. As his country's economics tsar, the former doctor is credited with negotiating the favourable deal with Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, to import oil to Cuba - an arrangement that has mitigated the effects of the US economic embargo against the island.

His rival is Felipe Perez Roque, 42, the foreign minister. He is the "bad cop", regarded as a firebrand more likely to fight real reforms.

An intelligence source said: "It will come down to Lage or Roque. Whoever wins will determine the speed and nature of reforms in Cuba."

Dan Erikson, a Cuba specialist at Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think-tank, said: "Lage is seen as being more sophisticated, mature and diplomatic. Perez Roque is younger and likely to play the role of attack dog.

"If you want someone to do a trade deal, you send Lage. If you want someone to deliver a tirade at the UN, you send Perez Roque."

The US government remains committed to the view that Cuban communism will disintegrate when Castro dies, but CIA analysts and the state department are now preparing plans to deal with slower political change.

Central to this is an assessment that Cuba's leaders have persuaded Castro that if he wants his revolution to survive his death, he needs to help the handover of power.

In his letter, Castro said: "My basic duty is not to cling to office, nor obstruct the rise of people much younger."

[aavkk]

It seems to me that a dramatic change in power was the only way communism would be threatened in Cuba. If Castro dies last year or whenever he had the emergency surgery than things would be very different. Castro is a lot of things but he definitely isnt stupid. He knows that a gradual and less public shift in government means his successor is someone he will have a lot of involvement selecting. What are your thoughts on this Jimmy?