Cuba\'s Future after Fidel Castro

[Jimmy2]

The United States Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute has published a new monograph on the likely security requirements that will be faced by Cuba once the Castro Brothers, Fidel and Raul, are gone from the scene. The monograph, titled "Security Requirements for Post-Transition Cuba," was authored by Colonel Alex Crowther of the United States Army and was released with a publication date of August 2007.

According to Colonel Crowther, the fact that both Fidel and Raul Castro are in the later years of their life means that Cuba must ready itself for the inevitable change that will accompany their passing. The change foreseen by Colonel Crowther could be either a succession to someone, or a group of individuals, associated with the current dictatorial regime, or it could be a transition to a new, possibly democratic, form of government.

No matter what type of change occurs, the monograph says, Cuba's security requirements will have to adjust. Colonel Crowther seeks to examine the future Cuban security environment and its associated challenges while making recommendations on a range of possible missions and the potential organization of Cuban security forces in the wake of the Castros' passing.

The author reiterates the overall long-range goal of the United States as a stable, democratic Cuba that has integrated itself into the worldwide market economy. As part of that stated goal, Colonel Crowther envisions the United States providing assistance to a new Cuban government by helping Cuban security forces transition to what is considered a proper role in a democratic society. Of course, the author notes, any such assistance would have to be the result of an invitation by the newly formed Cuban government. If such assistance were to be requested, Colonel Crowther in this new monograph lays out a path forward for the United States to help prepare Cuban forces in a post-Castro security environment.

This path forward includes the integration of Cuban forces into the Western Hemisphere community of militaries and ensuring their support for democracy, and establishing military subordination to elected officials and a recognition for accepted human rights.

Colonel Glenn Crowther is a research professor of National Security Studies in the Strategic Studies Institute of the United States Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.

The complete monograph is available for download, free of charge, as an Adobe PDF file from the United States Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute web site.

Source: United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute