So who is shipping oil to Cuba and how are they getting paid?

[El Presidente]

 

The Geopolitical Pivot: Mexico's Caribbean Play

Cuba's energy collapse—sparked by Cold War-era U.S. sanctions and crumbling infrastructure—has created a vacuum Mexico is filling aggressively. In 2024, Pemex's shipments to Cuba surged by 20%, totaling $600 million, while 2025 shipments have already exceeded 1 million barrels by mid-year. These deliveries now surpass Russia's supply to Cuba, cementing Mexico's influence. The shipments are managed through Pemex's subsidiary, Gasolinas Bienestar, which has become a linchpin of bilateral ties.

The strategy is more than commercial. It's geopolitical: Mexico is leveraging energy as a tool to counter U.S. sanctions, deepen regional alliances, and position itself as a reliable supplier in a volatile region. For investors, this signals a long-term play in Mexico's energy infrastructure, including ports, refineries, and pipelines servicing the Caribbean.

Risks: Sanctions and Shifting Winds

The risks are twofold. First, U.S. sanctions on Cuba could penalize Pemex's transactions, threatening its access to U.S. credit markets. Second, political shifts—such as a new administration in Mexico or Cuba—might disrupt the barter system underpinning the shipments (e.g., Cuban doctors traded for oil). Gasolinas Bienestar's $300 million debt highlights operational strains, and Pemex's liquidity challenges could force cuts in Cuban shipments if U.S. sanctions tighten.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Gamble

Mexico's oil shipments to Cuba are a bold geopolitical move with profound implications. For investors, Pemex and regional energy equities offer exposure to a reshaped Caribbean energy landscape—but require a tolerance for volatility. The upside lies in Mexico's entrenched position as a regional energy supplier and potential infrastructure projects. The downside? U.S. sanctions and fiscal mismanagement could unravel the play.

 

https://www.ainvest.com/news/mexico-oil-lifeline-cuba-geopolitical-play-caribbean-energy-dominance-2507/

[El Niño]

Interesting, thanks for sharing!

[Dlowil]

This could be an opportunity to help production, quality, logistics, and innovation for Habanos. Not holding my breath.

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, Dlowil said:

This could be an opportunity to help production, quality, logistics, and innovation for Habanos. Not holding my breath.

Habanos is marketing only. They have nothing to do with production (Tabacuba). 

The story here is how Cuban doctors are being traded by the Cuban state for Mexican oil.  

[Dlowil]

Learned something (Habanos S.A. is only marketing). Crude for stethoscope and white coat makes plenty of economical sense. Do believe it’s interesting what resources they (Cuba) decide to throw at cigars.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, Dlowil said:

Learned something (Habanos S.A. is only marketing). Crude for stethoscope and white coat makes plenty of economical sense. Do believe it’s interesting what resources they (Cuba) decide to throw at cigars. 

Delve a little deeper in your own time. Not quite slavery. Not far from it. 

[ha_banos]

1 hour ago, Dlowil said:

Learned something (Habanos S.A. is only marketing). Crude for stethoscope and white coat makes plenty of economical sense. Do believe it’s interesting what resources they (Cuba) decide to throw at cigars. 

 

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Delve a little deeper in your own time. Not quite slavery. Not far from it. 

Trafficking is another noun that's often used...

[Dlowil]

10 hours ago, ha_banos said:

Trafficking is another noun that's often used...

Did some digging. There was definitely a disturbance in my moral compass. Sounds like some indentured servitude. Would love to have conversations with those who decide to stay.

[ha_banos]

10 hours ago, Dlowil said:

Did some digging. There was definitely a disturbance in my moral compass. Sounds like some indentured servitude. Would love to have conversations with those who decide to stay.

We always have a choice right?