How long we giving Trinidad?


How long will Trinidad brand last?  

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An issue that has hit me:   Cohiba is the most inconsistent brand out there for me. No other can give such highs and such lows. Regardless of income levels, anyone getting whole dud boxes, never

True. For solace see the results of most blind tasting competitions where people can't pick a coro from a partagas sd4. Just buy the counterfeit bands and when you're wasted one night put them on a bu

I think that their strategy is quite clear.  They don't want anyone who cares about price to smoke Cohiba and Trinidad.  They want people smoking Cohiba/Trinidad to be seen making a statemen

2 minutes ago, joeypots said:

Just like Cohiba, with Trinidad, we will see more smaller boxes. 6s and 12s? We will also see more posers buying and showing off their cigars. I smoked a ETP JUL 16 RASS on the way home from a long bicycle ride this afternoon.  That was a good cigar. I enjoyed it by myself in my car and thought when I got home that life is good. 

Same here. Burning down an RAE15 box of RASS and they are downright fantastic. 

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5 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

I like how many are opinionating on how this will all play out with some hope of a reversal in the future.  It reminds me a lot of when our local race track was pointing to shutting down.  The locals kept guessing that it was some negotiating ploy by Churchill Downs, Inc.  Locals were saying they couldn't afford to lose the business, they wouldn't do that to their customer base, and blah blah blah.  Then CDI officially announced the shut down and a final racing season last year, and I've still got friends asking me if I think they'll re-open or run races again this year.  The answer is no, it's over.  Maybe when they actually start tearing down the buildings will it sink in.

Same with the marketing plan for Cohiba and Trinidad, the decision has been made, it's over.  Maybe it will sink in for all of us when the new prices hit everywhere.  Don't expect a rebound in the future.

I’m not sure there’s many people who expect the prices to go down. I also don’t think it’s fair to assume posts skeptical of the move are motivated by hope and not reason. There is a logical case for skepticism they can sustain sales at the new prices if they reach pre-COVID production capacity (a big if), but in that event I think they’ll just limit production accordingly and make more of other cigars.

We are used to Cuba making as much as it can and scarcity being natural, but artificial scarcity is part and parcel of many luxury goods and happens in NC cigars too. If they start sending distributors more cigars than they can sell, grey market discounting is inevitable. But even “discounting” on the new prices will be higher than today, and even if production recovered tomorrow wouldn’t occur until distributors had rebuilt their stocks (ie years)  

 

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I’m not sure there’s many people who expect the prices to go down. I also don’t think it’s fair to assume posts skeptical of the move are motivated by hope and not reason. There is a logical case for skepticism they can sustain sales at the new prices if they reach pre-COVID production capacity (a big if), but in that event I think they’ll just limit production accordingly and make more of other cigars.
We are used to Cuba making as much as it can and scarcity being natural, but artificial scarcity is part and parcel of many luxury goods and happens in NC cigars too. If they start sending distributors more cigars than they can sell, grey market discounting is inevitable. But even “discounting” on the new prices will be higher than today, and even if production recovered tomorrow wouldn’t occur until distributors had rebuilt their stocks (ie years)  
 

Double the price with half the production. If cuba deems revenue from Cohiba is enough 2020 to current then this is an easy solution to all the concerns about factories being staffed. If they want to say.. increase production 15% on Cohiba then they just saw revenues increase 130% just on Cohiba alone.

This makes me think of a comment El Presidente made amidst the talks of a price increase a while back. (Not a direct quote below)

If you raise prices by 50% and decrease your customer base by 30% (read decrease customer base as sell 30% less) you’re still making more money than you did last year with doing 70% of the work on that Marca.

I think it’s safe to say that in the short term Cuba would see a massive revenue increase if they continue with current production numbers.
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True. For solace see the results of most blind tasting competitions where people can't pick a coro from a partagas sd4. Just buy the counterfeit bands and when you're wasted one night put them on a bunch of random cigars in your humidor. Then you'll likely not know the difference. 
 
Hey that's a great idea....
Finally I have a use for all the bands I've been saving for no other apparent reason

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28 minutes ago, dominattorney said:

Hey that's a great idea....

This crossed my mind too. Honestly, if this is all about appearances for HSA, and not the cigars, then why not. Prove my PLPC isn’t a Siglo II.
 

I have been plenty underwhelmed by cigars from both marcas. I have loved others just the same. I get Hammer’s point. I really do. I’ll miss the good ones. But like the discontinued cigars I also miss, something good will come along and I think I’ll be just fine. 

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11 hours ago, Nocoins said:

Prove my PLPC isn’t a Siglo II.

Lots of money and time could be spent trying to do so with little chance of success. I've had some PLPC that could compete with the best of them any day. Some bolivar PC too. 

 

10 hours ago, teamrandr said:

 Imagine $100 a stick and you get under filled Vigia.  

Will people think those are fakes? Serious inquiry, as when paying that price one would absolutely expect top quality product. A neophyte to the hobby who decided to buy the rolex of cigars for the first time could be forgiven for this belief. 

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These days, La Trova are my favorite stick. Thankfully I squirreled away a dozen or so boxes. The thought of a world sans Trinidad is just too sad to think about. Sure, there are other great cigars out there, but Trinidad is special… to me anyways. I’ll still buy them, even at insane prices, but they’ll taste slightly more bitter.


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17 hours ago, teamrandr said:

This is as sad as it is funny.  Sad because I love Reyes.  Funny because quality will still be all over the place.  I feel upset when I get a box of duds at pre covid prices.  Imagine $100 a stick and you get under filled Vigia.  

Exactly why this nonsense will be non sustainable.

 

18 hours ago, ChicagoRob said:


Double the price with half the production. If cuba deems revenue from Cohiba is enough 2020 to current then this is an easy solution to all the concerns about factories being staffed. If they want to say.. increase production 15% on Cohiba then they just saw revenues increase 130% just on Cohiba alone.

This makes me think of a comment El Presidente made amidst the talks of a price increase a while back. (Not a direct quote below)

If you raise prices by 50% and decrease your customer base by 30% (read decrease customer base as sell 30% less) you’re still making more money than you did last year with doing 70% of the work on that Marca.

I think it’s safe to say that in the short term Cuba would see a massive revenue increase if they continue with current production numbers.

This is assuming a worldwide recession won't happen. But all the signs are there it's around the corner. Let's see how long folks will shell out $100 per cigar when their 401K's are down the tubes, they can't afford to gas up the F-150, and can't afford to feed and house the wife and kids. Survival will trump this nonsense if things go downhill fast. 

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43 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

This is assuming a worldwide recession won't happen. But all the signs are there it's around the corner. Let's see how long folks will shell out $100 per cigar when their 401K's are down the tubes, they can't afford to gas up the F-150, and can't afford to feed and house the wife and kids. Survival will trump this nonsense if things go downhill fast. 

The world is a lot bigger than the states.  Habanos has their cross hairs for Trinidad in the APAC & EMEA.  NASA is 2nd tier in their eyes.

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2 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

The world is a lot bigger than the states.  Habanos has their cross hairs for Trinidad in the APAC & EMEA.  NASA is 2nd tier in their eyes.

Yes but a deep economic recession in the US will have ripple effects in the rest of the world. Surely you are aware of that.

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1 hour ago, SCgarman said:

Yes but a deep economic recession in the US will have ripple effects in the rest of the world. Surely you are aware of that.

There are plenty of buyers for Trinidad in APAC regardless of global economic conditions.

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2 hours ago, CaptainQuintero said:

An issue that has hit me:

  Cohiba is the most inconsistent brand out there for me. No other can give such highs and such lows. Regardless of income levels, anyone getting whole dud boxes, never mind a few sticks isn't going to be happy buying it at the potential new pricing being thrown around. 

  Luxury items get away (mostly) with the sticker price because there's the illusion of super-high quality. A level that is reflected by the extreme pricing. Cuba simply hasn't got the ability to provide luxury quality products with luxury-level consistency in anything beyond small-batch releases such as the original Behike release where a single roller handled the process.

  I can tell everyone my homemade jam is now a luxury product and whack up the price x10. But just because I'm charging more doesn't mean there'll be less bird shit or worm in the occasional jar. 

  I don't see Cuba suddenly being able to consistently make Cohiba at a high enough quality to get away with making their new target market happy. If they were able to, they already would have. Instead we've seen the opposite: an increase in provincial production away from El Laguito and products like Behike simply being made without their unique selling point (Medio tempo leaf) and sold anyway. Behike was supposed to be the luxury product. Run out of the key ingredient that makes this luxury product unique? Sod it, make them without it and stick them on a truck, no one will care...imagine Rolex shipping out watches without an hour hand because they couldn't find any. But the watch comes in a shiny new lacquered box! No one will care! 

  Remember the whole reason why Davidoff (An actual luxury brand) pulled out of Cuba was because Cuba couldn't consistently make a product at the level required to be called a luxury and justify the price of being such.

  This isn't Fuente, it's glorified sweatshops with people being worked at barely above slave labour at every stage in production

and at the supposed prices I'd probably smoke more Davidoffs (which I consider an actual luxury product) because they hit the same mark over and over like no other brand out there in my experience. 

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10 hours ago, Shrimpchips said:

That’s assuming that the consumer is a connoisseur.

You don’t have to be a connoisseur (or connossieur) to tell a cigar is plugged.

Are most sales in HK through divans? I know most fine cigar merchants will replace a plugged cigar purchased for on premise smoking. 

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17 hours ago, ChicagoRob said:


If we’re actually objective.. recessions don’t impact people who buy Behikes @ $3000 a box. The same is true for those who will drop $1500 on CoRo.

Impact meaning - the people being targeted will still have disposable income to support their luxury goods purchases.

After selling luxury wines through 2 major recessions, I can assure you this isn't true in my experience. When rich folks look at their portfolios & don't feel as rich anymore, they cut spending like everyone else. In the wine business it always appeared as if people dropped 2-3 price tiers down in products they consumed.

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