Is it the right time to buy CC stock?


Is it smart to buy CC stock before the price increases hit?  

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I have been on a bit of a binge this morning prompted by cigar journal's article.  I have been laying off for the last few months thinking the price increases couldn't stick, but reported 2x to 4x multiples spooked me and I reacted.  I even bought some RyJ boxes which I have historically shunned.  Smart, well informed group here so felt like asking, "Am I a fool playing into their game?" 

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If you care about continuing to collect/smoke CCs, then the time is now to spend as much as you can grabbing boxes. Prices will likely never go down.

I remember several threads early last year (in the face of increases) asking this same question, and the answer was the same then. Anyone who listened then is now grinning with relief.

It's not much different than when I went to buy a house in Portland 5 years ago. I was like 'damn this is expensive, i wonder if it's worth it?? will prices continue to climb??'. Duh, of course they will. Fast forward and my equity has increased 25% in that span. So many 'shoulda woulda coulda' stories in real estate...and also in CC collecting over the past 2 years.

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While newer to the CC community, I don't see prices going down. I think we're more likely to see prices level off or go higher. Sure there may be some boxes that are in overload demand at the moment but surprisingly there are still good deals if you search (FOH being a very fair vendor in recent times). I think now is best not to be overly picky and maybe open up to newer vitolas/marcas if the price is right.

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Today Trini, Cohiba, Linea De Oro, Linea 1935 stock is flying off vendors shelves and out of stock. To stock up now is probably too late. 

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Of course it's smart to buy cigars before the prices go up. The Cuban cigars situation is difficult and I think few will  regret having nice stash tucked away. 

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To me a better question is whether now is a good time to start buying and smoking less, and use the savings for something else. Cigars aren’t the only thing I like in the world.

I’ll allow it’s easier to avoid the FOMO when sitting on a few years of stock. 

I definitely wouldn’t go buying cigars I thought were a bad value just because they’ll be an even worse value in three months or three years. 

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Bourbon is fun, I’ll start building a bourbon collection….

Oh wait….🥴

 

There is no better time than right now, to have full humidors and multiple years of inventory. I’m counting my blessings, to include being part of this community. At minimum, I’ll be watching the show from the sidelines and perhaps even come in off the bench a time or two for a Hail Mary. Likely far less Flutie’esque…..and much more Rudy…..uh, esque. 
 

 

 

 

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Is it smart to buy CC stock before the price increases hit?

 

sorry, it's WAAAAY TOO LATE.

 

You should have done this YEARS AGO.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, garbandz said:

Is it smart to buy CC stock before the price increases hit?

 

sorry, it's WAAAAY TOO LATE.

 

You should have done this YEARS AGO.

 

 

Exactly. Prior to pandemic when prices were reasonable and supply was abundant.

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What else would you do with the cash? Inflation is set to soar for a while yet. Consider the opportunity cost of buying them (what else could you have spent the money on). If the enjoyment of CCs outweighs the fun or economic benefit from spending elsewhere, go for it. 

You don't have to get nerdy and calculate the NPV of all the opportunities, but if you dumped 10k on cigars, would that leave you in a hole with the mortgage rate if it jumped to 10% in 12 months time?

It's all relative. They're fantastic things, but not worth getting in a financial mess over. If you have plenty of coin, plough in!👍🏻

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FOMO is strong with this group each May as the increases approach. This year seems very different. I have been stocking up for several years to be ready for some sort of supply disaster either with product or demand. It’s never enough though. That’s what FOMO is all about.
We all have some premium boxes whose resale is twice what we paid for them a year or two ago. I’m not so sure how long that math will hold with doubling every year or two. Or how long I could afford it to. For now I’m buying more than I smoke and buying what I want to smoke. If many prices go where the speculators seem to think they will be, it will be a very different market. And my days of increasing my collection will be over. The only question for me may be if I get a half dozen boxes a year or just fill in with NC. 

I say all this, and yet earlier today I ordered three boxes of very reasonably priced PC and minutos 😂 there were some gaps in my collection. 

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As other have suggested.

1. You're too too late.

2. The cheapest cigar you will buy will be the one you bought yesterday.

3. Prices will not come down, even after supply might increase in 4 years time.

I would say the one strong reason to buy now is overall quality right now that is very good. I sold all my 2012-2015 stock over the last few years and loaded up on the same stuff in 2019/2020/2021 boxes.

 

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Only things out there that are still relatively cheap are discounted cheap & cheerfuls on gray market monthly sales. I have grabbed a couple of things from there that I would not have otherwise on the theory that I can "stock up" a little. At my current smoking rates I have a long way to go before I burn through my older stash. My "stockpiling" in that sense was completely unintentional. It's sometimes tempting to sell on BR but knowing that I am never going to see any of these boxes again, or in some cases likely these marcas, it makes it hard to say goodbye.

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