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Everything posted by GolfT3

  1. Tough to be reading this with two more weeks before 24:24 comes back for the impetuous among us
  2. Considering what you have I think these would fill some gaps with different sizes/marcas smoking well: RASS/RA Superiores BBF Boli PC Punch Punch Monte 1 (I would say Especiales but too hard to find right now) CoRo or Medio Siglo (expensive as hell but such great profiles) Trini Media Lunas (great profile, smoking well, won’t break the bank) R&J wide Churchill (don’t love the size but they have been smoking really well lately in my experience) For the last two I’d double down on one of the above or hold out for some special occasion cigars (Sir Winston, CoLa, Fundi, Monte Especiales, Sig VI, etc.)
  3. @Nevrknow some serious steel there. Are you a carbon fan or are most of those stainless? I always find a way to convince myself I need more of both.
  4. I agree that rates are unlikely to go up dramatically in the short term and when they do start going up lenders will likely absorb some of that increase in their spreads. The important thing in that type of real estate investment is that rental rates are growing faster than interest rates. As long as you have a long-term perspective and don’t go crazy on leverage you should be ok. Being patient and getting the right property is always going to be more important than trying to save 10-15bps on interest rates.
  5. For me, naive would be extrapolating anecdotal personal experience to diagnose the entirety of the largest economy in the world but what do I know… @SigmundChurchill apartments and utilities are generally very good inflation hedges because of their ability to reprice frequently and demand that is insulated from the rest of the economy (people always need housing and power regardless of how good or bad the economy is). Real estate will also give you some tax advantages but that’s a different conversation. A short duration bond portfolio can help hedge against a stock market correction but with rates this low I’d stay far away from a medium to long duration portfolio. I generally agree with you on commodities and crypto, they are non-correlated assets but also extremely speculative. Lots of people are adding some exposure there but not as a significant percentage of a total portfolio. I would also say that having a good amount of cash on hand is always a strong play when a correction might be coming. People who were able to deploy cash in the first half of 2020 have done extremely well, we might have another opportunity like that on the horizon.
  6. There was never going to be a scenario where inflation wasn’t high this year given the madness of 2020. 2022 over 2021 will be much more telling. Our current thesis is that inflation will remain well above the Fed’s target next year but will be lower than the 6-7% we are seeing now. 1-2 interest rate hikes in 2022 is the most likely scenario and will be needed to help dilute the impact of fiscal stimulus still being spent by the federal government. The infrastructure bill won’t be big enough to move he needle on inflation ($100B/year), but if the other BBB bill passes that could be an issue. Too early to know as there are no finalized details on spending in that bill. Over the last 40 years every recession has been followed by a period of high inflation and then a period of slow to no growth, I don’t see why this scenario should be any different. On the employment front, I’m no big fan of increased or unneeded welfare programs but that’s not why labor force participation is down. Zero evidence to support that conclusion. Statistically, the two groups who left labor force in the greatest numbers in 2020 and have recovered the least by the end of 2022 are workers over the age of 55 and women. Women have started rejoining the labor force at greater rates over the last few months (likely because schools/daycare/etc are more widely open now), over 55 have not. A lot of those workers have likely decided to go part time or retire while their savings and 401k look strong in a bullish stock market environment. Lower labor force participation will continue to drive wage growth in 2022. Not an inherently bad thing as a number of entry wages have been stagnant when inflation adjusted for the last 20-30 years. Long-winded way to say, people love to play chicken little but the sky usually isn’t falling.
  7. @Hammer Smokin' I have almost worn the vinyl out on that album. Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings are one of the best live shows I’ve ever seen and I’ve seen a lot. Such a sad loss when she passed.
  8. Likely because the scientists and physicians studying the issue (most of whom are not government employees) disagree with your analysis. Namely the Stanford neurologists who came up with the radio wave theory as it fits the most common symptoms the most closet. The Stanford neurology team has also directly assessed many of the victims while many of the naysayers have not. The idea that the CIA, State Department, and Nat Sec budgets need Havana Syndrome in order to get a few extra million dollars in funding and save some jobs? The government throws out money for nothing and can’t fire careerists for literally anything. Unlikely. I’m sure that we are already deep into agree to disagree territory though, different perspectives on this one.
  9. I’ve got a number of state dept/foreign service friends and very few degrees of separation from some of those impacted, it’s no joke. The person running the investigation was fired because she coined it mass hysteria without consulting the interviewing physicians, all of whom said mass hysteria was, at best, incredibly unlikely. That was her solution to a difficult problem she didn’t want to deal with, an easy out. The first dozen cases were reported with extremely similar symptoms by people who could not have contacted or discussed their symptoms with each other prior to reporting them. I’m not saying every suspected case is legitimate, and I’m not saying it’s Russia, but someone is screwing with our FSOs. Anyone with any actual knowledge of diplomatic work and foreign service knows that other countries do things to disrupt the lives of our diplomats and FSOs all the time (slashing tires, directed noise/light pollution, tailing, breaking into apartments or hotel rooms). The idea that this is a new approach in the same vein shouldn’t be hard to believe at all.
  10. The daily and the weekend/track/fun car. Hard not to be happy with this combo. Was lucky to grow up in a family with an unhealthy and expensive predilection for p-cars so I need to have a flat six handy at all times.
  11. Universities - yes, jobs - yes if you’re in healthcare, military, public service, teacher etc, travel - I believe it’s dependent on where you’re coming from but if you want a visa there are about 10 you need. And I understand and agree with your comments about states authority vs feds, but my point is more about public reaction and outrage now where there was none in the past. The idea that parents today are more worried about Smallpox, which has been essentially eradicated for 50+ years, than Covid, which has killed hundreds of thousands in the last 18-24 months, makes my point more acute. How seriously the average person takes Covid is a function of who they listen to and where they get their news. I’m betting if Joe Rogan were around 60 years ago a lot more if us would have Polio today…
  12. This has been mentioned briefly before, but what is most fascinating to me about this situation is that vaccines have been required for various things for decades (public schools, university, travel, jobs, etc.) without massive or large scale public resistance. We aren’t really crossing the moral or proverbial rubicon for the first time here. Whats different now? My guess is that it has nothing to do with the vaccine and it has little to do with a mandates (which everyone has adhered to in the past). It’s about where you get your information, who you choose to listen to, and how susceptible you are to those sources. Those are the things that have changed in the modern era.
  13. I like a good pour over when I’m trying to get maximum nuance out of beans but if you like your coffee with more body (a la Turkish or French Press), pour over will never give you that. Horses for courses.
  14. DFH 90 Minute as brewed by The Veil, so so good. Great take on a classic.
  15. Love a great cheese. Frequent summer dinner is a big salad and some bread, cheese, pate. Like wine, the amount of variety out there is incredible. Here are a few local favorites:
  16. @BrightonCorgi Mauveil is fantastic stuff, especially the 2.5mm thick heritage line. Heavy as hell but by far my favorite kitchen pans and I’ve tried them all.
  17. @99call agree 100%, part of why Anthony Bourdain was so great was the emphasis he put on explaining that common thread. For me, nothing could beat a plate of fried chicken (thighs, please), mac n cheese, collard greens, and a big bottle of Texas Pete. Just a perfect combo and no one could eat that and not be happy,
  18. Agree with the above, and while I generally prefer Armagnac, I’ve found that Remy 1738 is a happy medium between the VSOP and XO grade cognacs. Readily available and reasonably priced for the quality.
  19. Was finally able to source some Four Pillars Bloody Shiraz here in the states, will crack that tonight before a big dinner. Golf and house chores tomorrow, F1 and a little work on Sunday. Trying to get ahead of things before a long holiday weekend up in the mountains next week. 100 degrees and humid here all weekend so I think I’ll be packing/planning out my cigars for the mountains vice trying to smoke them in this heat…
  20. If you like heat these are hard to beat
  21. For me, I try to pair secondary notes in the cigar to primary notes in the drink. Primary to primary tends to drown everything else out. EG: Monte with a citrus/orange twang, go for Grand Marnier or maybe a martini with orange bitters. BBF with Irish coffee always brings out the creamier side of the cigar alongside the leather. Totally different flavors tend to be high risk and that’s not what I’m looking for in a relaxing night after work. Imperfect, but it’s fun to try and get the right combos.
  22. While on the subject of logic and the application of data we have so far: those who dismiss the early reports of 99% vaccine efficacy because of the rise of delta variant transmission recently should also be dismissing the early data around young people being largely safe from serious cases. % of hospitalized COVID patients below 60 years old has been rising significantly with the spread of Delta. Can’t dismiss early data that is inconvenient to your case and bear hug early data that you feel supports your position.
  23. As a manager I am responsible for the health and safety of my employees when they are at work. I’m also fortunate to have friends who are much smarter than I am. Doctors, nurses, a few PhD’s (including virology). They are much better equipped than I am to assess the current covid threat and the the data around vaccine efficacy and their opinions were identical - the evidence in favor of vaccination exponentially outweighs the evidence against. Ergo, for us, if you want to come into the office you need to be vaccinated. If you don’t want the shot and have a job that can’t be done remotely it’s probably time to start considering a change. No ones choices have been taken from anyone. You have no god given right to a job at my business.

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